Reporters and analysts rely on the expertise and comments of team members at North Star Opinion Research to give their stories depth and strategic perspective. Read clips from recent articles on pressing political news.
News Clips
Whit Ayres, July 25
July 25, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The Washington Post regarding Vice President Harris’ 2020 campaign:
“She’s just a horrible candidate who could not communicate a rationale for her candidacy,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who mused that Biden, at 81 years old, may have been quicker to set aside his own reelection ambitions if he had more confidence in his vice president.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Kamala Harris, News Clips, Presidential Contest
Whit Ayres, July 24
July 24, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres comments to The New York Times about Donald Trump’s comments on electric vehicles:
“Trump is tapping into something Republicans really believe,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant. “They’re far less likely to consider buying an electric vehicle and they really resent the idea that the government is going to come along and subsidize these Democrats who want to buy an electric vehicle.”
To read the whole article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Energy and Environment, Featured, Government Spending, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Republicans, Trump
Whit Ayres, July 19
July 19, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The Washington Post regarding Joe Biden’s chances in the presidential election:
“If the Democrats persist in nominating Joe Biden, at this point they’re essentially conceding the presidency to Donald Trump,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. “Trump waving his fist in the face of an assassin is the very picture of strength. You put that alongside Joe Biden’s vacant stare during the debate and he is the very picture of weakness.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Whit Ayres, July 16
July 16, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding the political images of Donald Trump and Joe Biden:
Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, said it would depend on how Mr. Biden framed the argument. “If he sticks to specific things Trump has said, like terminating the Constitution, then he can continue to make the case that Trump is a threat to democracy,” Mr. Ayres said.
But that will not solve the larger problem for Mr. Biden created by the shooting, he added. “After the assassination attempt, Trump’s image as ‘strong’ and Biden’s as ‘weak’ take on sharper relief,” Mr. Ayres said. “If the Democrats stick with Biden, they are effectively conceding the presidency to Trump.”
To read the full article please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Whit Ayres, July 15
July 16, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The Wall Street Journal regarding the political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump:
“Before yesterday, Joe Biden’s chances of re-election were slim. After yesterday they are virtually nonexistent,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres asserted, suggesting Democrats would likely focus instead on maintaining some control in Congress.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Whit Ayres, July 7
July 8, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ appearance on NewsNation, saying Democrats should move on from both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, was written up in The Hill newspaper:
“Democrats are much better off having an open convention where they can bring somebody new to the floor who is — would be a credible president,” Ayres said on Sunday. “I think that they’re far better off doing that than they are sticking with either Biden or Kamala Harris, both of whom are almost assured to lose to Donald Trump.”
When host Chris Stirewalt noted that putting forward someone new could be “dangerous” for Democrats, Ayres emphasized that presidential candidates have been nominated at national conventions before. The Democratic National Convention will be held August 19-22 in Chicago, where Biden is expected to be officially nominated as the party’s candidate.
“We have nominated presidential candidates in the past in conventions. The Democratic convention would get the highest viewership ever for a convention, and you’d have the possibility of bringing forward somebody else that America hasn’t been introduced to before who might actually be a very good president,” he said.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, News Clips, Presidential Contest
Jon McHenry, July 6
July 8, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry discussed the effect of the presidential debate on swing states including New Hampshire in The Boston Globe:
Further fueling Republican hopes: a recent poll, taken in the immediate aftermath of the first general election debate, that shows Trump leading Biden by two percentage points in New Hampshire — a stark change from December 2023, when the same poll showed Biden besting Trump by 10 percentage points.
“If it wasn’t already, it sure came into play last Thursday,” said Jon McHenry, a national GOP pollster who grew up in New Hampshire, referring to the first general-election debate between Biden and Trump.
Republican “reach states,” including New Hampshire, “became more competitive after that performance,” McHenry said. A year ago, the state “absolutely” looked less competitive for Republicans, he said, “whereas now, you go, ‘Hey, that’s on the table.’”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Jon McHenry, June 27
July 3, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry joined Rebecca Kesby on the BBC World Service’s Newshour program to discuss the presidential debate: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172zb8xxwxck12 (segment begins at 30:00)
“The expectations for Joe Biden are so low, that he has to stay awake and alert for 90 minutes to clear his hurdle. There’s no guarantee that he will. … Joe Biden could walk out of this debate in a huge hole if he seems incoherent at some point.”
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Inflation, Jobs and the Economy, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Whit Ayres, March 4, 2024
July 3, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to NHK regarding the state of the presidential contest:
Reporter: “You recently said that if the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would win the election. Why do you say that?”
Ayres: “Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent President in America since Jimmy Carter, who lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. The job approval ratings of both Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden are very similar. They’ve gone nothing but down. A big problem is Joe Biden’s age. A recent poll showed that 86% of Americans think he’s too old to serve effectively in a second term. 86% of Americans don’t agree on anything, except the fact that Joe Biden is too old to serve in a second term. So consequently, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in all the swing states and he would win a landsllde if the election were held today.
“There is so much riding on this election. I can’t help but think, given the unpopularity of both major figures, given the challenges they have coming up with trials and age, that this election may be decided by events that haven’t happened yet. We don’t know what could happen between now and November but it feels unstable. Yes, we’re very likely to get Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, but we need to hold at least in the back of our minds the possibility that something could happen to shake that up between now and November.”
To watch the full interview, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Jon McHenry, June 26
June 28, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry’s comments to NPR about the effect of the presidential debate format:
Another is that the mute button could actually benefit Trump — by tamping down the aggressiveness that rubs some people the wrong way, according to Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research.
He thinks many Americans feel they were financially better off under Trump, which works in his favor.
“And the only hesitation people have in tossing the keys to the car back to former President Trump is that they’re worried about his personality,” he explained.
To read the full article or listen to the story, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Trump, Uncategorized
Whit Ayres, June 26
June 26, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to Politico regarding Republicans and the politics of abortion:
“When you’re talking about abortion, you’re playing on the Democrats’ turf,” said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster and consultant. “Just like when you’re talking about immigration and inflation, you’re playing on Republicans’ turf.”
…
“There’s going to be a lot of ferment and turmoil at the state level until each state develops a consensus consistent with its own culture about the abortion question,” Ayres said.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Abortion, Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans
Whit Ayres, June 23
June 24, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to CNN regarding the policy and political landscape in the wake of the Dobbs decision:
“President Trump was right to say that abortion policy should be left up to the states,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant. “The dramatic differences among state cultures means that there is no possible national policy that would be considered legitimate in both Mississippi and Massachusetts.”
Ayres said that while some states have gone “way overboard” with the abortion restrictions they’ve passed, he believes that eventually states will reach a consensus on abortion that match their culture.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Abortion, Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Republicans
Whit Ayres, June 24
June 24, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post on the upcoming presidential debate:
Whit Ayres, also a GOP pollster, points to a somewhat larger group: “at least half of the electorate who doesn’t want to vote for either man.” This group, he said in an interview, will be more influenced by “the candidates’ attitude and affect more than any particular issue positions.”
But issues — abortion, protecting democracy and health care for Biden and immigration, crime and the cost of living for Trump — will matter to other pieces of the electorate that are up for grabs. A canvas of pollsters and academic analysts suggests a series of subgroups that should be on the candidates’ minds: non-evangelical working-class voters, especially women; Black and Latino men; college-educated voters, particularly independents and Trump-skeptical Republicans; and voters under 35, many of them anti-Trump but whom Biden needs to persuade to cast ballots for him. The debate is likely to be a suburban excursion, Ayres said, since suburbanites are key to many of these groups.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Trump
Jon McHenry, May 28
May 28, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry’s comments to National Public Radio regarding former Governor and Ambassador Nikki Haley’s trip to Israel:
Jon McHenry, a Republican strategist with North Star Opinion Research, says Haley’s visit appears designed to shore up U.S. support for Israel. He noted that President Biden, who has long been a supporter of Israel, has faced vocal opposition from the left wing of the Democratic Party over his Israel policy.
“I think it’s probably a good reminder for President Joe Biden as he’s looking to pull some of those Nikki Haley voters in the primary to his side in the general election that this is where they’re at,” McHenry said.
The trip may also help burnish Haley’s image as a national leader with a strong foreign policy resume, he said, whether or not she has a role in a potential future Trump administration.
“It certainly keeps her on people’s radar screens,” McHenry said. “It may be less about what happens in 2024 and more about what happens in 2028.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Israel, Joe Biden, News Clips, Nikki Haley, Political Climate, Presidential Contest
Jon McHenry, May 19
May 24, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller regarding Joe Biden’s legislation and impacts on swing state voting:
“I think the problem for President Biden in Pennsylvania is that there really are not enough jobs created in these bills — especially in the near future — to offset the losses of his curbs on natural gas,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst who works for North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “Even if voters know about potential gains down the road, what they really know is likely job losses that are a direct result of what could be called the ‘war on gas.’ And of course, the president is in a box because any backing away from his green energy rhetoric will upset his base.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Whit Ayres, May 22
May 24, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The Washington Post regarding Donald Trump’s social media habits:
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, called the past couple of days “par for the course.”
“It’s baked into the cake” with voters, Ayres said. “It drives people who don’t like him crazy, and people who like him dismiss it.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Trump
Whit Ayres, May 23
May 24, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments on the potential political impact of the verdict in the New York case against Donald Trump:
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, doubts that as many as a fourth of Republicans would actually shun Trump if he’s convicted. But Ayres said even if just a small number of more moderate Republicans and independents are turned off by a guilty verdict, it could help Biden in a close election.
However, Ayres said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, will help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.
“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” Ayres said.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Indictment(s), News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Trump
Dan Judy, May 14
May 14, 2024 by North Star
Dan Judy’s comments to The Guardian on former President Donald Trump’s conquest of state Republican parties:
“The big, sort of under-the-radar story in American politics over the last couple of years was the way Trump and his people had taken over state parties across the country,” said Dan Judy, a senior analyst for North Star Opinion Research, a Republican guidance and consultancy company based in Virginia.
“Even early in the primary process, a year and a half ago when Ron DeSantis was riding high and leading a lot of the polls, I was always thinking: Trump has control of the state parties, he’s got his people in, and they are, for lack of a better word, going to attempt to rig the process in favor of Donald Trump.
“If you look at it, that’s exactly what happened. A lot of state parties changed their rules to make their primaries winner-takes-all, which absolutely helped Trump, especially as it came down to a one-on-one with Nikki Haley. It was clear that she was going to have to win some of these things outright to get any delegates at all, and she couldn’t do it.
“The fact that the Florida GOP has also been completely taken over by Trump folks is really indicative of a trend that has happened everywhere.”
Judy pointed to how easily Trump took down DeSantis in the primary race, humiliating the governor he disparaged as “Meatball Ron” in his own state. DeSantis’s efforts to cajole Florida’s congressional delegation were ultimately futile, and he dropped out in January to avoid a spanking in the state’s March primary.
“As high as he was riding after his huge re-election victory, just any hope that he would have had of continuing to be top dog in the Florida GOP went out the window when he failed to get any traction at all in the presidential race,” said Judy, who has worked for the winning campaigns of several Republican politicians, including DeSantis and the Florida senator Marco Rubio.
“He’s not the kind of person who cultivates relationships, who builds relationships, who builds a party, an organization, and an apparatus. He’s just not that guy, and if you’re going around Florida looking for Ron DeSantis people, there are shockingly few of them.
“But if Donald Trump is re-elected, there might be a place in the administration for him. If he wants to have a future in the current Republican party, he cannot be an enemy of Donald Trump, and you’re seeing him do the things that he needs to do to remain in good standing.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Florida, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Republicans, Trump
Whit Ayres, May 14
May 14, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The New York Times regarding President Biden and his reelection prospects:
“People associated with the administration are beating their heads against the wall saying, ‘Why aren’t they giving us any credit?’” said Whit Ayres, another veteran Republican pollster.
“But even if they did give him credit, voters think he is too old to serve effectively in a second term,” Mr. Ayres said, citing recent polling by ABC that demonstrates concerns over the 81-year-old president’s age.
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Jobs and the Economy, Joe Biden, News Clips
Jon McHenry, April 21
April 26, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller on the effect of Arizona’s Supreme Court ruling on abortion:
The opposition from prominent Republicans to the Arizona Supreme Court’s abortion ruling could mitigate Democrats’ turnout boost, according to polling analyst Jon McHenry.
“Typically where there’s been something on the ballot, it has helped Democrats — there’s kind of no way around it. The Arizona situation is going to be an interesting case, because you have so many high profile Republicans saying that this really went too far,” said McHenry. “It’ll be interesting to see what happens with turnout when you have Republicans, essentially on the same side, saying, ‘we need to repeal this.’”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Abortion, Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Republicans
Jon McHenry, April 25
April 25, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding the gag order in Donald Trump’s New York case:
Complying with the gag order is not in Trump’s DNA, said Republican pollster Jon McHenry.
“He is never going to admit that he’s wrong, and he feels like if you don’t make your case, you’re weak,” McHenry said. “If he just sits and abides by the gag order, as virtually any other defendant would, he’s just letting the prosecution make their case against him, day after day, week after week, potentially.”
Any fines would easily be offset by the fund-raising Trump could do off it, McHenry said.
“The first time he gets fined, there’s going to be a fund-raising email that goes out to small donors saying, ‘Help me fight this corrupt judge and give me the money to pay off these fines so I can continue to speak,’ ” McHenry said. “That email is probably already written. And it just needs a date put in it.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Trump
Whit Ayres/Hacks on Tap
April 19, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres joined Robert Gibbs and Jonathan Martin on the Hacks on Tap podcast this week:
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips
Whit Ayres, April 9
April 9, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal regarding President Trump’s position on abortion:
“I don’t know that anything will take the attention off the abortion issue given some of the extremely restrictive bills that have been passed,” said GOP consultant Whit Ayres, who called Trump’s position a politically smart one. “But it is the most likely strategy to allow the focus on other issues.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Abortion, Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Republicans, Trump
Whit Ayres, April 3
April 3, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to Politico about politics and higher education:
Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster, suggested that the topic’s resonance with voters was a symbol of Republicans’ growing frustration with elite higher education.
“That really was the culmination point of a long period of Republican suspicion about the mindset of higher education,” he said of the December hearing with the presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT. “Republicans believe that woke liberals have taken over most higher education institutions and instituted a very rigid belief system that one must follow or be excommunicated from the woke tribe.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Education, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans
Whit Ayres, March 29
April 1, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to ABC News on Republican office holders wrestling with abortion issues:
“The states have just started wrestling with one of the most intractable issues in American politics. And some state legislatures are going to overreach, and some state judicial rulings will overreach, and then they’ll get corrected,” GOP consultant Whit Ayres said. “We saw that with the IVF issue in Alabama, where the legislature and the governor rushed to confront and overturn a Supreme Court decision.”
When asked if Republicans have to make peace with a pattern of overreach and correction, Ayres replied, “Yeah. That’s the way the process works.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Abortion, Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Republicans
Jon McHenry, March 26
March 27, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry appeared on NPR’s All Things Considered to discuss the U.S. stance toward Israel:
Republican pollster Jon McHenry says there may be an opportunity for Trump to present a more vigorous foreign policy with an ally – and win back some more traditional Republican voters he lost during the primaries.
“That may actually be an entré for him to get them to say, ‘OK, maybe I don’t agree with him on Ukraine, but I do agree with him on Israel,'” said McHenry of North Star Opinion Research. “And that’s better than what I’m seeing out of Joe Biden.”
To read the article or listen to the segment, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Foreign Policy, In the News Sidebar, Israel, Joe Biden, News Clips, Trump
Whit Ayres, March 11
March 12, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to Vox on voters’ perceptions of the economy:
“The fundamental problem for Biden and the Democrats is that while the rate of inflation is down, it’s not going backwards,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. “It’s hard to persuade people that things are better.”
…
“The general perception is that the economy was better before the pandemic than it is now,” said Ayres, the GOP pollster. “And that perception is powerful politically.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Jobs and the Economy, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate
Whit Ayres, March 10
March 11, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The Washington Post about the 2024 general election campaign:
Reelection campaigns generally favor the incumbent. But Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and no friend of Trump, sees Biden as the clear underdog. He cites public dissatisfaction with the overall direction of the country, and notes that Trump is seen as more trusted on the economy and immigration and that an overwhelming percentage of Americans see the incumbent as too old to hold the toughest office in the world.
Yet he added, “In this sea of uncertainty, I am hesitant to make a flat statement [about the outcome in November]. With two historically unpopular candidates, it feels less stable than it appears on the surface.” Still, he argued that the Democrats’ best chance of winning today “would be to find a different candidate.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Whit Ayres, March 3
March 7, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The Washington Post regarding Donald Trump’s appeal to working class voters:
On the flip side, Republican pollster Whit Ayres said in an interview, Trump has bundled together all the resentments felt by voters experiencing both economic decline and cultural estrangement.
“His message is anti-expertise, anti-immigration, anti-intellectual, anti-media and anti-establishment at a time when many jobs have been sent overseas, particularly blue-collar jobs, and when many families were ravaged by the opioid crisis,” Ayres said. “There is an audience for that message.”
To read the full article please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Trump, Working Class Voters
Whit Ayres, March 5
March 5, 2024 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to CNN regarding Donald Trump’s position as a quasi-incumbent:
Veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres said the primaries have shown that Republican voters are viewing Trump, in effect, as an incumbent president to a greater extent than the other candidates expected. Trump is trying to become the first defeated incumbent to win a rematch four years later against the man who ousted him from the White House since Democrat Grover Cleveland beat Republican Benjamin Harrison in 1892. Trump “is running as a quasi-incumbent,” Ayres said. To understand his dominance, Ayres continued, “What we really need are entrance polls and exit polls from the 1892 Democratic coalition for Grover Cleveland. That’s the analogy: a former president running again to defeat the guy who beat him.”
To read the full article, please click here.
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump