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Whit Ayres, March 16

March 17, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to Time regarding the effect of charges against former President Donald Trump:

Charges related to the Daniels’ hush money payments would be “old news to most people,” says Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist and pollster, and “he could easily spin this as just a liberal democratic vendetta against him.”

An indictment by Bragg, Ayres adds, would have “substantially less effect than an indictment in Georgia or by the Department of Justice would have because it’s a New York Democratic prosecutor who would be doing it.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Crime, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Trump

Whit Ayres, March 15

March 17, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to fivethirtyeight.com regarding education and Republican candidates:

These data points might be one reason why Republicans appear confident that DeSantis’s focus on race in education can attract socially conservative voters in a GOP primary. During a phone call with me, Republican pollster Whit Ayres pointed to Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race — after he stressed “parental rights” in the classroom — as proof for GOP candidates and strategists that certain issues surrounding education have appeal.

“Savvy Republican presidential candidates have historically made good use of education issues,” Ayres said. “Good Republican candidates have seen the potential in education issues for many years.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Education, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, March 13

March 13, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in Politico about former President Trump’s current place in the Republican primary:

“There’s no question [Trump is] the giant in the middle of the room, and other people will define themselves in comparison to him,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster.

In recent days, Trump said he will “absolutely” stay in the race if he is indicted and that it would likely “enhance my numbers.” Far from distancing himself from the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6 — a general election liability with independents and pro-democracy Republicans — Trump has suggested pardoning some Jan. 6 defendants and recently collaborated on a song with some of them. More traditionalist Republicans winced at that — and again when Fox’s Tucker Carlson aired footage downplaying violence at the Capitol.

“Just reliving the worst moment of the Trump presidency is probably not exactly what the doctor ordered for 2024,” Ayres said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, February 28

February 28, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Boston Globe regarding electability as a concern in the Republican nominating progress:

Trump is still viewed favorably by about two-thirds or more of Republicans, according to multiple surveys, but that doesn’t mean they’ll all vote for him again, said veteran Republican pollster, Whit Ayres. His current and potential competitors are beginning to make the case — with varying levels of directness — that voters should consider alternatives after the losses in the 2018 midterms, the 2020 general election, the 2021 Senate runoffs, and the 2022 midterms.

“If Republican primary voters come to believe that nominating Donald Trump in 2024 will lead Republicans to lose 5 national elections in a row,” said Ayres,“it then opens the door to other alternatives.”

According to Ayres’ polling and focus groups, about one-third of Republicans are what he calls “Always Trump” voters, who would cast a ballot for Trump no matter what. Ten percent of the party, he says, would never vote for the former president.

That leaves about 55 to 60 percent of Republicans who he considers “maybe Trump” voters — who voted for him twice and still like him, but are open to alternative candidates. And that is the group that other candidates need to convince with a pragmatic argument.

“It is one of the core arguments behind the ‘maybe Trump’ coalition, because they believe that Donald Trump could not win in 2024 and they want a candidate who can,” Ayres said. “Electability is a primary motivating force.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

2022 Midterm Review

February 22, 2023 by
Filed Under: Blog, Election, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Slideshow

Whit Ayres, February 20

February 21, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding President Biden’s reelection:

Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster, said a rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump would be the best scenario for the president. “At this point, President Biden just needs to seem like he is still very much with it and able to do the job and at that point his fate is largely out of his hands,” Mr. Ayres said. “He’s got to pray the Republicans blow themselves up again.”

…

Still, another challenger would pose more of a generational threat. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is 44; Nikki Haley, a former U.N. ambassador, is 51; and former Vice President Mike Pence is 63. “If the Republicans nominate a younger, vigorous person, male or female, who seems up to the job, I think he’s in trouble,” Mr. Ayres said of Mr. Biden.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest

Whit Ayres, February 14

February 16, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to CNN on the structure of the Republican primary electorate:

That allowed Trump in 2016 to neutralize Cruz’ expected edge among evangelicals because those without degrees voted more like other blue-collar Republicans than they did like the white-collar evangelicals. Among Republican voters, said Ayres, the GOP pollster, “the education divide” has been “a better predictor of Donald Trump’s strength than the evangelical/non-evangelical divide.”

…

Early indications are that education will remain a critical fault line in the 2024 GOP race, including among evangelical voters. Ayres said that in the recent 2024 polling he conducted for The Bulwark, Trump ran about even with DeSantis among non-college evangelicals when the two were matched with a large field of potential contenders, while DeSantis led the former president fairly comfortably among both college-educated evangelicals and non-evangelicals with and without a degree.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Education, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, February 15

February 16, 2023 by

Whit Ayres appeared on PBS News Hour to discuss Governor Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/haley-launches-run-for-president-becoming-1st-republican-to-challenge-trump

Filed Under: Blog, Election, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries

Whit Ayres, February 6

February 6, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in Sarah Longwell’s podcast “The Focus Group” were featured on The Bulwark:

A Turning Point for Trump’s 2024 Prospects?
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, February 2

February 2, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to The New York Times regarding former President Trump’s position in the Republican presidential primary:

Mr. Ayres, the Republican pollster, said that “there’s no question there’s an opening” to run against Mr. Trump.

“In a multicandidate field, he has a lock somewhere around 28 to 30 percent, and that is a very significant portion of the party,” Mr. Ayres said. “And they are very, very committed to him. But if he doesn’t get more than that, in a narrowing field or a small field, he’s going to have a hard time winning the nomination.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Trump

Republican Presidential Primary Survey

January 31, 2023 by

In the wake of a disappointing Republican performance in the 2022 midterm elections, Donald Trump has slipped to his lowest point since he emerged on the political scene almost eight years ago.  He remains a formidable force, to be sure, with a lock on approximately 30 percent of likely Republican primary and caucus voters nationally.  But a majority of the GOP is ready to move on, believing either that Trump cannot win in 2024, or that he is too focused on the past rather than the future.

To read the full memo, please click here.

To read the toplines, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Slideshow, Uncategorized

Whit Ayres, January 27

January 27, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to Steven Roberts on Governor Ron DeSantis and his outlook in the 2024 presidential primaries:

DeSantis could be a far tougher foe. At 44, with a telegenic wife and three adorable young children, he highlights Biden’s age. More seriously, he shares Trump’s shrewder political instincts but lacks Trump’s fatal flaws — the narcotic narcissism, the endless grievances and the growing detachment from reality, all of which drive away moderate swing voters, who decide national elections.

“He’s Trump without the craziness,” says Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, January 26

January 27, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Boston Globe about the prospects of a third-party candidate:

Further, despite Perot’s surprisingly strong showing, “the key point is that 19 percent of the popular vote yielded zero Electoral College votes,” noted Republican pollster Whit Ayres. For an independent candidate to emerge as a serious Electoral College factor, “you would have to assume that states that have voted consistently for either Democratic or Republican nominees lately would not do so again.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest

Whit Ayres, December 29

December 29, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in Time on the 2024 Donald Trump campaign:

So far, Trump’s campaign is “disjointed, haphazard, unfocused, and still focused on the past, and his grievances, rather than the future, which is what attracted a lot of Republicans to him in 2015,” says Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. Nonetheless, Trump still has a grip on a meaningful slice of his party’s base. According to polling Ayres conducted with North Star Opinion Research, about 30% to 40% of GOP voters fall into what Ayres describes as “always Trump,” people who say they will support Trump no matter what. That is a strong base from which to wage a Republican primary campaign, Ayres says.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, December 2

December 7, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments about ticket splitting and voters’ decisions in Governing:

Ayres, the GOP consultant, says that citizens make different calculations when voting for the Senate — where they’re choosing someone who will primarily just cast votes — than governor, where they’re electing someone with real decision-making authority. “Governors make life and death decisions, whether it’s the final decision with the death penalty or when to evacuate the coast in a hurricane,” Ayres says. “People look at governors with common sense and good judgment in dealing with very real issues under their control, in a way they don’t with Senate candidates.”

When it comes to federal elections, Ayres suggests, people are voting strictly for their team, whether red or blue, or voting negatively to keep the other team out of power. Partisanship is practically all that matters. What may be most striking about this election, in fact, is not that the number of ticket-splitters went up, but rather the way it illustrates once again that the nation’s political map remains stable, or even static.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Georgia, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate, Ticket-splitting

Whit Ayres, November 19

November 20, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to US News and World Report regarding former President Trump’s prospects in the 2024 Republican presidential primary:

Though some of the most recent polling suggests that Trump’s support among Republicans may be falling slightly, within that general support lies a core group of 35 to 40% of “always-Trumpers,” says Whit Ayers, GOP strategist and president of North Star Opinion Research. “They believe he hung the moon, they’ll walk through a wall of flame for him, they’ll defend him until hell freezes over.”

…

To win the primary, a candidate needs a plurality rather than a majority. Though Trump’s core supporters would not, on their own, guarantee his victory in the primaries if it becomes a one-on-one contest with another candidate – as demonstrated by recent polls showing his loss in several states in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against DeSantis – his path could be much easier if two or more serious contenders split the vote of, what Ayers estimates, is about half of Republicans who supported Trump but are tired of his controversies and open to supporting someone else.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, November 19

November 20, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in Politico on ticket-splitting and candidate quality:

“In historical terms it may be low, but [ticket-splitting] was absolutely critical in numerous races this fall,” Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster for more than 30 years, said in an interview. “Voters made a lot of judgments about the quality of candidates nominated, and that’s why Democrats still control the Senate.”

…

“Governors actually make life and death decisions,” Ayres, the Republican pollster, said. “People are looking for good sense and good judgment in governors more than senators or congressmen, where increasingly they’re just looking for someone to join the blue team or the red team.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Ticket-splitting

Whit Ayres, November 18

November 19, 2022 by

Whit Ayres comments in the Associated Press (as printed in The Washington Post) regarding the House GOP’s legislative priorities:

Whit Ayres, a GOP political consultant, said Republicans should focus on inflation, crime and border security in the majority, but fears they will overreach once again.

“If past is prologue, the small House majority will govern from the right and we’ll get engaged in these investigations and cut off Ukraine aid and try to ban abortion and do all these other things that will repel a majority of the country and put Democrats back in charge,” Ayres said during a post-election forum at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Crime, Featured, Impeachment, In the News Sidebar, Inflation, Legislative Priorities, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Jon McHenry, November 16

November 17, 2022 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding Donald Trump’s effect on the midterm elections:

Now after four tumultuous years in office, three straight disappointing Republican elections, two impeachments, and one deadly insurrection, Trump is a known political entity — and one whoseems to be rapidly losing popularity among Republicans just as he announced another White House run Tuesday night.

“How much do people have to lose before they go, ‘Wait a second, it’s because this quarterback keeps throwing pick-sixes that we’re losing?’ ” said Republican pollster Jon McHenry. “How many times do you have to burn your hand before you realize the stove is hot?”

…

McHenry thinks Republicans might have attributed too much of their polling decline in the summer to the backlash over the Supreme Court’s June decision overturning federal abortion rights, when Trump may have also played a role because of the controversy involving the FBI’s seizure of classified documents from Mar-a-Lago was unfolding at the same time. And he thinks Trump’s decision to tease an upcoming presidential announcement in the days before the midterms might also have turned off some voters.

“When President Trump was heavily involved in the news, things didn’t go well for Republicans” in the polls, McHenry said. “When the focus was on President Biden, things were very good for Republicans. And I don’t know how many will admit it, especially on the record, but I think there’s a pretty good sentiment that [Trump] did drag us down just enough to fall short in the Senate.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Republicans, Trump

Dan Judy, November 15

November 17, 2022 by

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill regarding election denials and U.S. Senate results:

“It’s not difficult to imagine Chris Sununu beating Maggie Hassan without a whole lot of trouble,” Republican strategist Dan Judy said.

Judy added, in reference to Bolduc: “By the time he started to pivot his campaign to the things voters were really concerned about, it was too late. He had defined himself — and been defined by the Democrats’ campaign — as this crazy election denier.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Election, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections

Whit Ayres, November 17

November 16, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to CNN regarding abortion policy and the midterm elections:

Veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres says this separation testifies to the value of allowing states to set their own rules on contentious social issues, particularly abortion. This “is exactly why allowing the states to follow their own cultural values on such an emotionally fraught issue is a wise decision in a federal political system,” Ayres says. “That’s why Roe v. Wade was so problematic as a national policy because values differ so dramatically among the states that it is impossible to adopt a national abortion policy that will be supported in each of the states.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Abortion, Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips

Whit Ayres, November 15

November 15, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press regarding election denialism and Republican election results:

“It turns out that trying to overturn an election is not wildly popular with the American people,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster.

That even extends to Arizona, Ayres added, where a prominent former television newscaster-turned-election-conspiracy-theorist, Kari Lake, remains in a right race for governor against Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, whose campaign has been widely panned.

“The fact that it is close with a very polished, very good Republican candidate and a very weak, very unpolished Democratic candidate tells you how much of a weight election denial is on a Republican candidate,” Ayres said.

To read the full article please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, November 13

November 13, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post about former President Donald Trump and the future of the Republican Party:

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, says the party’s electorate can be divided into three key buckets. A small group, roughly 10 percent, are “Never Trumpers,” Republicans who have long and vocally opposed Trump. A far larger group, about 40 percent, are “Always Trumpers,” his hardcore base that will never abandon him.

The remaining 50 percent or so, Ayres said, are “Maybe Tumpers” — Republicans who voted for him twice, who generally like his policies but who are now eager to escape the chaos that accompanies him.

“So they are open to supporting someone else who will do much of what they want without all of the baggage,” Ayres said. “So then the question becomes: Who?”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, November 10

November 10, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments on the midterm elections in The Washington Post:

“With inflation at a 40-year high, crime out of control in many cities and our southern borders still porous, coupled with Joe Biden’s job approval in the low 40s, Republicans should have run away with this election,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “It should never have been close.”

To read more, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, October 25

October 25, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in STAT News regarding Republican views of elites and experts:

“In many ways, doubts about expertise have fed into the whole populist movement, which essentially is … anti-elite, anti-establishment, anti-expertise,” said Whit Ayres, a political consultant with North Star Opinion Research who has advised GOP candidates including DeSantis. “Populism has a real problem in presenting a positive vision for the country. It’s ‘the experts are part of the establishment, so we’re against them too.’”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Jon McHenry, October 24

October 24, 2022 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The New York Times regarding challenges in polling:

If there is a big miss this cycle it’s likely to be driven by voters who are less educated not participating in the polls. The people you do get on the phone, you can always weight them up … but you don’t know exactly who you’re missing. And that’s always been the kind of thing that will keep a pollster up at night.But the numbers were really good in 2018.

Are we in that sort of midterm where Trump is not on the ballot and missing those people isn’t as much of a concern?

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Polling Methodology, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, October 19

October 19, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New Republic on the national mood and midterm elections:

“Republicans should be running away with this election. With [President] Biden’s job approval in the low 40s, with inflation at a 40-year high and not moderating, with crime a serious problem in many cities, and with the border still not under control, Republicans should be cleaning up,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. “Republicans still are overwhelming favorites to take the House and have at least a 50-50 chance to take the Senate, but it’s closer than it should be because of the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion energizing Democratic women and because Republicans have nominated a number of inexperienced first-time candidates. So that’s keeping it closer than it would otherwise be.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate

Jon McHenry, October 19

October 19, 2022 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The Boston Globe about school choice and parental rights:

School choice and parental rights, especially after the last two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, are often a reliable way for Republicans running in statewide races to talk about issues that are typically favorable to their campaigns, according to GOP pollster Jon McHenry.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Education, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Parental Rights, Uncategorized

Whit Ayres, October 14

October 14, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic about the effects of polarization:

“The difference in policy now between the group that has 51 percent and the group that has 49 percent is so enormous because of the polarization and divergence of the two parties,” the longtime GOP pollster Whit Ayres told me. Such big change resting on such small shifts, Ayres added, “is not healthy for democracy.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, October 8

October 8, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Hill regarding Ben Sasse leaving the U.S. Senate:

“Ben Sasse was one of the people who made the Senate work,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “And there’s a pattern of a lot people who made the Senate work who are leaving the institution, and that’s not good for the country and not good for our democracy.”

Ayres suspects that Sasse and other retiring Senate Republicans are fed up with what he called “the toxic polarization” that’s made it “difficult to do the things that led them to run for the Senate in the first place.” 

To read more, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Uncategorized
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