Whit Ayres’ comments in The Hill regarding former President Donald Trump’s position in the Republican presidential primary:

Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster, said the possibility of additional indictments against Trump by the Department of Justice and the Fulton County district attorney in Georgia could swing the race away from Trump, predicting that charges from those prosecutors would have more credibility than Bragg’s indictment.  

“People seem to have an inevitable tendency to jump to premature conclusions well before we know many of the key elements of a campaign environment,” he said in response to comments by some GOP senators that Trump’s victory in next year’s primary looks inevitable.  

“What might be the political effects of serious felony indictments backed up a mountain of compelling evidence?” he asked of potential felony charges that Trump incited the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and tried to interfere in the 2020 election in Georgia.  

“Are Republican voters really going to dismiss multiple credible felony indictments backed up by substantial evidence, if indeed they occur? They might, but I don’t know the answer to that,” he said. 

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Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal on the Republican presidential primary:

Because of what Mr. Trump accomplished in 2016, it would be foolish to count him out next year. But Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP strategist, told me that Republicans who believe that someone other than the former president stands a better chance of defeating Mr. Biden should take note of what Democrats did in 2020. “It’s not how many people start the race, it’s how many people stay in after they have no chance of winning,” Mr. Ayres said. “And once Biden won South Carolina in 2020, literally within hours the rest of the field dropped out and endorsed him.”

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Whit Ayres’ comments in Politico about former President Trump’s current place in the Republican primary:

“There’s no question [Trump is] the giant in the middle of the room, and other people will define themselves in comparison to him,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster.

In recent days, Trump said he will “absolutely” stay in the race if he is indicted and that it would likely “enhance my numbers.” Far from distancing himself from the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6 — a general election liability with independents and pro-democracy Republicans — Trump has suggested pardoning some Jan. 6 defendants and recently collaborated on a song with some of them. More traditionalist Republicans winced at that — and again when Fox’s Tucker Carlson aired footage downplaying violence at the Capitol.

“Just reliving the worst moment of the Trump presidency is probably not exactly what the doctor ordered for 2024,” Ayres said.

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Whit Ayres’ comments in The Boston Globe regarding electability as a concern in the Republican nominating progress:

Trump is still viewed favorably by about two-thirds or more of Republicans, according to multiple surveys, but that doesn’t mean they’ll all vote for him again, said veteran Republican pollster, Whit Ayres. His current and potential competitors are beginning to make the case — with varying levels of directness — that voters should consider alternatives after the losses in the 2018 midterms, the 2020 general election, the 2021 Senate runoffs, and the 2022 midterms.

“If Republican primary voters come to believe that nominating Donald Trump in 2024 will lead Republicans to lose 5 national elections in a row,” said Ayres,“it then opens the door to other alternatives.”

According to Ayres’ polling and focus groups, about one-third of Republicans are what he calls “Always Trump” voters, who would cast a ballot for Trump no matter what. Ten percent of the party, he says, would never vote for the former president.

That leaves about 55 to 60 percent of Republicans who he considers “maybe Trump” voters — who voted for him twice and still like him, but are open to alternative candidates. And that is the group that other candidates need to convince with a pragmatic argument.

“It is one of the core arguments behind the ‘maybe Trump’ coalition, because they believe that Donald Trump could not win in 2024 and they want a candidate who can,” Ayres said. “Electability is a primary motivating force.”

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