2024 Presidential Election Outlook
March 28, 2024 by North Star
Filed Under: Blog, Independent Voters, Indictment(s), Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Slideshow, Trump, Uncategorized
Jon McHenry, January 25
January 25, 2024 by North Star
Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding Donald Trump’s performance in the New Hampshire Republican primary:
Trump remains dominant among Republican voters in New Hampshire, but “his performance among independents is a warning sign,” said Jon McHenry, a national GOP pollster who grew up in the state.
“Based on what you saw last night, it seems like he would not be well positioned to win New Hampshire” in the general election, McHenry added.
…
“Probably the most unifying thing among Republicans is a view that Joe Biden is ruining the country,” said McHenry, the strategist, “so those Republicans certainly vote for Trump.”
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Whit Ayres, October 5
October 6, 2023 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments on the PBS survey and keys to the presidential election:
Voters who dislike both Trump and Biden — “the double haters,” Republican strategist Whit Ayers says — “become a swing voter group” that both parties will spend significant time and money trying to win over.
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“This is a politics of negative polarization where people feel greater animosity against the other side than they feel support for their own,” said Ayres, who has previously consulted for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sens. Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio.
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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, Joe Biden, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Trump
Whit Ayres, January 29
January 31, 2022 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments to The New York Times regarding perceptions of Joe Biden’s presidency:
“The left is disappointed with him and the anti-Trump Republicans and independents thought they were going to get a moderate governing,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “I don’t know how resolving the pandemic is going to affect that fundamental reality that he is completely misplaying his hand.”
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Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, Joe Biden, News Clips, Republicans
Whit Ayres, January 5
January 7, 2022 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times on Donald Trump and his effect on the 2022 elections:
Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster, said that Mr. Trump’s backing was powerful in primaries, but a “very, very mixed blessing” in swing districts.
“It’s pretty clear that candidates who want to be competitive in the general election are being careful how close they get to him during primaries,” he said. He pointed to Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin of Virginia as having offered a “classic example” of the type of balancing act necessary.
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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Trump
Whit Ayres, October 19
October 19, 2021 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments on the political effect of tying Republican candidates to President Trump:
Which means there has probably never been a midterm election when a former president was as much a part of the political dialogue as Trump is now. The Virginia result will offer a first gauge of how much that new factor can change the usual midterm dynamics favoring the party out of the White House.
“We’re going to find out in the Virginia race because McAuliffe has puts an enormous number of chips on the table betting that a focus on tying Youngkin to Trump will motivate Democratic base voters as well as independents,” said Virginia-based Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “We are going to get a test of that very soon.”
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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Trump
Outlook for 2020 Elections
November 2, 2020 by North Star
Filed Under: Blog, Demographics, Independent Voters, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump
Jon McHenry, September 9
September 9, 2020 by North Star
Jon McHenry’s comments to STAT News regarding health care and the Kansas Senate race:
“Barbara Bollier could be in the right position for Kansas on surprise billing, but it’s likely to get drowned out by her abortion position,” said Jon McHenry, a pollster for the GOP-aligned group North Star Opinion Research. “Similarly, ACA repeal may not be decisive here if the conversation skews to other issues.”
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Despite voters’ broad coronavirus anxiety, Bollier could still face difficulty incorporating the country’s pandemic struggles into her broader health care message, given Republicans’ large advantage in voter registration.
“Often 80% or more of Democrats will say they are very concerned about the effect of the pandemic, but that will drop to 50% to 60% among independents, and maybe 25% to 45% among Republicans,” said McHenry, the Republican-aligned pollster. “For some Republicans and independents, it’s more of a government control and economic issue than a ‘health care issue.’”
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Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, Health Care, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Uncategorized
Whit Ayres, July 4
July 6, 2020 by North Star
Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding growing the Republican coalition:
“The president’s base is locked in. They love him, they’re going to turn out and they’re going to vote for him,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. “The problem is that the base is not enough to win. You can make a case that protecting Confederate monuments is very popular among at least a portion of his base, but it does nothing to expand the coalition, and that’s the imperative at the moment and will be going forward if the party hopes to govern.”
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Filed Under: Blog, Demographics, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Republicans
Whit Ayres on NPR, September 27
September 27, 2019 by North Star
Whit Ayres appeared on Morning Edition to discuss public opinion regarding the House impeachment inquiry of President Trump:
Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, Trump Tagged With: Impeachment, Swing Voters, Trump