Whit Ayres, July 19

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Washington Post regarding Joe Biden’s chances in the presidential election:

“If the Democrats persist in nominating Joe Biden, at this point they’re essentially conceding the presidency to Donald Trump,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. “Trump waving his fist in the face of an assassin is the very picture of strength. You put that alongside Joe Biden’s vacant stare during the debate and he is the very picture of weakness.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 16

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding the political images of Donald Trump and Joe Biden:

Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, said it would depend on how Mr. Biden framed the argument. “If he sticks to specific things Trump has said, like terminating the Constitution, then he can continue to make the case that Trump is a threat to democracy,” Mr. Ayres said.

But that will not solve the larger problem for Mr. Biden created by the shooting, he added. “After the assassination attempt, Trump’s image as ‘strong’ and Biden’s as ‘weak’ take on sharper relief,” Mr. Ayres said. “If the Democrats stick with Biden, they are effectively conceding the presidency to Trump.”

To read the full article please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 15

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Wall Street Journal regarding the political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump:

“Before yesterday, Joe Biden’s chances of re-election were slim. After yesterday they are virtually nonexistent,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres asserted, suggesting Democrats would likely focus instead on maintaining some control in Congress. 

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, July 6

Jon McHenry discussed the effect of the presidential debate on swing states including New Hampshire in The Boston Globe:

Further fueling Republican hopes: a recent poll, taken in the immediate aftermath of the first general election debate, that shows Trump leading Biden by two percentage points in New Hampshire — a stark change from December 2023, when the same poll showed Biden besting Trump by 10 percentage points.

“If it wasn’t already, it sure came into play last Thursday,” said Jon McHenry, a national GOP pollster who grew up in New Hampshire, referring to the first general-election debate between Biden and Trump.

Republican “reach states,” including New Hampshire, “became more competitive after that performance,” McHenry said. A year ago, the state “absolutely” looked less competitive for Republicans, he said, “whereas now, you go, ‘Hey, that’s on the table.’”

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, June 27

Jon McHenry joined Rebecca Kesby on the BBC World Service’s Newshour program to discuss the presidential debate: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172zb8xxwxck12 (segment begins at 30:00)

“The expectations for Joe Biden are so low, that he has to stay awake and alert for 90 minutes to clear his hurdle. There’s no guarantee that he will. … Joe Biden could walk out of this debate in a huge hole if he seems incoherent at some point.”

Whit Ayres, March 4, 2024

Whit Ayres’ comments to NHK regarding the state of the presidential contest:

Reporter: “You recently said that if the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would win the election. Why do you say that?”

Ayres: “Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent President in America since Jimmy Carter, who lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. The job approval ratings of both Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden are very similar. They’ve gone nothing but down. A big problem is Joe Biden’s age. A recent poll showed that 86% of Americans think he’s too old to serve effectively in a second term. 86% of Americans don’t agree on anything, except the fact that Joe Biden is too old to serve in a second term. So consequently, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in all the swing states and he would win a landsllde if the election were held today.

“There is so much riding on this election. I can’t help but think, given the unpopularity of both major figures, given the challenges they have coming up with trials and age, that this election may be decided by events that haven’t happened yet. We don’t know what could happen between now and November but it feels unstable. Yes, we’re very likely to get Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, but we need to hold at least in the back of our minds the possibility that something could happen to shake that up between now and November.”

To watch the full interview, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 26

Whit Ayres’ comments to Politico regarding Republicans and the politics of abortion:

“When you’re talking about abortion, you’re playing on the Democrats’ turf,” said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster and consultant. “Just like when you’re talking about immigration and inflation, you’re playing on Republicans’ turf.”

“There’s going to be a lot of ferment and turmoil at the state level until each state develops a consensus consistent with its own culture about the abortion question,” Ayres said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, May 28

Jon McHenry’s comments to National Public Radio regarding former Governor and Ambassador Nikki Haley’s trip to Israel:

Jon McHenry, a Republican strategist with North Star Opinion Research, says Haley’s visit appears designed to shore up U.S. support for Israel. He noted that President Biden, who has long been a supporter of Israel, has faced vocal opposition from the left wing of the Democratic Party over his Israel policy.

“I think it’s probably a good reminder for President Joe Biden as he’s looking to pull some of those Nikki Haley voters in the primary to his side in the general election that this is where they’re at,” McHenry said. 

The trip may also help burnish Haley’s image as a national leader with a strong foreign policy resume, he said, whether or not she has a role in a potential future Trump administration.

“It certainly keeps her on people’s radar screens,” McHenry said. “It may be less about what happens in 2024 and more about what happens in 2028.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, May 23

Whit Ayres’ comments on the potential political impact of the verdict in the New York case against Donald Trump:

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, doubts that as many as a fourth of Republicans would actually shun Trump if he’s convicted. But Ayres said even if just a small number of more moderate Republicans and independents are turned off by a guilty verdict, it could help Biden in a close election.

However, Ayres said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, will help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.

“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” Ayres said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, April 21

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller on the effect of Arizona’s Supreme Court ruling on abortion:

The opposition from prominent Republicans to the Arizona Supreme Court’s abortion ruling could mitigate Democrats’ turnout boost, according to polling analyst Jon McHenry.

“Typically where there’s been something on the ballot, it has helped Democrats — there’s kind of no way around it. The Arizona situation is going to be an interesting case, because you have so many high profile Republicans saying that this really went too far,” said McHenry. “It’ll be interesting to see what happens with turnout when you have Republicans, essentially on the same side, saying, ‘we need to repeal this.’”

To read the full article, please click here.