You are here: Home / Archives for North Star

Whit Ayres, July 31

July 31, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Guardian regarding the challenges still facing President Joe Biden:

Whit Ayres, a political consultant and pollster, said of the policy areas: “They may be moving in the right direction but they still are major problems from the perspective of Republican voters as well as a number of independents. We are a long way from having the border under control.

“We’re a long way from having inflation back at the rate we became used to for quite a while. And crime remains a very significant problem in lots of American cities. So while each of those may not be quite as bad as they were, they are still very significant problems and likely to remain so through the election.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Featured, Immigration and Border Security, Inflation, Joe Biden, Presidential Contest

Jon McHenry, July 31

July 31, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The Daily Caller regarding the DeSantis campaign “reboot”:

“I think a reset now gives Governor DeSantis a chance to reassert himself as the strongest alternative to former President Trump,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “Gov. DeSantis moving to make himself more available to the media and voters is a great first step.”

…

McHenry argued the campaign’s “staff was too big,” which indicated to contributors that DeSantis wasn’t being responsible with their funds. DeSantis also needs to promote his record in Florida without simply “owning the libs,” said McHenry.

“At some point he’s going to have to draw some distinctions with Trump and talk about how he’s really led when President Trump followed Washington,” said McHenry. “It’s not enough to be ‘Trump without the baggage,’ you have to be a better choice and have a vision for the country’s future.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, DeSantis, Featured, Florida, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, July 25

July 25, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post on the Mike Pence campaign:

“Mike Pence is caught between a rock and a hard place. He’s too Trumpy for the non-Trumpies and not Trumpy enough for the Trumpies,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres. “If you say that Donald Trump is unfit for office, that puts people who voted for Trump in an uncomfortable position psychologically where they have to admit to themselves that they made a mistake. I suppose you could thread that needle by saying he was fit for office until Jan. 6th, and after that he wasn’t. But that’s really threading a needle with those folks.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Uncategorized

Dan Judy, July 25

July 25, 2023 by

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill regarding Governor DeSantis’ campaign and cultural issues:

Some Republicans argue that DeSantis has made a strategic miscalculation in allowing his stance on culture-war issues to overshadow everything else.

GOP strategist Dan Judy argued that the Republican primary electorate is comprised of three camps, which he termed “Always Trump,” “Never Trump” and “Maybe Trump” voters.

The red-meat rhetoric, Judy added, “most appeals to the people who won’t vote for anyone but Trump. And leaning so hard into the culture wars has actually turned off some of those ‘Maybe Trump’ voters who are less comfortable with the anti-trans stuff, the hard abortion stuff. That has been [DeSantis’s] biggest strategic mistake so far.” 

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Cultural Issues, DeSantis, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Republicans

Whit Ayres, July 22

July 24, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Miami Herald on Governor Ron DeSantis’ appeal in the primary:

“College-educated Republicans were looking for an alternative to Donald Trump, and they initially thought Governor DeSantis, after his 19-point win in Florida, made for a good one,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP pollster. “But the way he has run his campaign, constantly tacking to the right, has turned off many of those people who were initially attracted to him.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Jon McHenry, July 18

July 18, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller on the Q2 fundraising haul of Mike Pence and others:

The former vice president’s second quarter totals don’t indicate there is a “lane” for Pence, Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF, echoing Bullock’s sentiment.

“Vice President Pence’s numbers are kind of right where you’d expect: some courtesy donations in appreciation of past relationships, but nothing that suggests there is a lane for him to pursue in this race,” McHenry told the DCNF. “His association with President Trump will sour the ‘never Trump’ folks, and his refusal to derail the certification of electors ticks off the hard core Trump folks.”

…

McHenry argued the second quarter totals reveal the “importance” of the first presidential debate in August to see which candidates catch fire, and questioned whether DeSantis can garner new donors with a strong debate performance.

“It’s hard to see much of a path forward for Governor Hutchinson or Governor Christie if they don’t score some points in that debate,” said McHenry. “As much as we can romanticize Senator McCain’s comeback in 2008, riding around New Hampshire on the Straight Talk Express, he had the benefit of being the second place candidate in 2000. None of the lower tier fundraisers has that level of visibility, and something will need to change to improve their fundraising and status for them to even make the Iowa caucus.”

To read the full article — including quotes from UGA professor Chuck Bullock — please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, July 13

July 14, 2023 by

Whit Ayres joined Bill Kristol on his Conversations podcast to answer the question: Is Trump Inevitable?

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Trump

Jon McHenry, July 9

July 9, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to the Daily Caller News Foundation on the 2024 primary season to date:

Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, also stressed how unprecedented this Republican primary is and argued Trump’s reshaping of the party, paired with his indictment by the Manhattan district attorney, have helped the former president dominate the polls.

“This really is a unique cycle, at least since we’ve used primaries and caucuses as the primary vehicle to nominate our presidential candidates. In that time, we haven’t had an incumbent president lose a reelection and run again, much less lead in the polls,” McHenry told the DCNF. “President Trump’s lead right now is in part a testament to the extent to which he reshaped the party from a conservative party to a populist party.”

McHenry acknowledged how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was polling well against the former president prior to the first indictment, and noted Trump’s spike in support ever since. (RELATED: Post-Indictment Poll Finds Trump Leading DeSantis In Key Early Primary State)

“With the New York charges in particular being seen as politically motivated and questionable legally — with a very different context than holding top secret documents in an unsecure location — the Republicans who might have been ready to move on to a fresh face have at least for now rallied back to the former president,” McHenry said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

Jon McHenry, July 6

July 6, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The Boston Globe regarding New Hampshire’s role in the primary process:

Still, “New Hampshire is insanely important this time around,” said Jon McHenry, a national GOP pollster who grew up in the state. “There’s an opportunity to do as close to one-on-one as you’re going to be able to do. By the time you get to South Carolina, it’s gonna be all television.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, June 24

June 25, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New Yorker on the Republican primary contest:

At least in theory, there is plenty of time for the dynamics of the primary to shift. But is that likely?

Many political observers don’t think it is, but Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican consultant and pollster, told me on Friday that the result of the primary is more uncertain than the polls suggest. (Ayres, who has advised a broad range of G.O.P. politicians, including Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, and DeSantis, isn’t currently advising any 2024 Republican candidate.) “Being honest, it’s a long shot for anybody not named Trump,” he said. “But I also think it’s premature to write anybody off.” Ayres based this conclusion on his analysis of the Republican electorate, which he says is split into three parts: Trump’s base, which is about a third of the total, and will support him under virtually any circumstance; Never Trumpers, who constitute about ten to twelve per cent of G.O.P. voters; and a voting bloc that Ayres refers to as Maybe Trumpers—Republicans who voted for Trump twice and would vote for him again if he wins the nomination, but who also think he has too much baggage and are, therefore, at least willing to consider an alternative. “The real question is whether any of the other candidates can consolidate that Maybe Trump portion of the Party,” Ayres said.

To read the full article, including more of Whit’s thoughts on the race, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump
« Previous Page
Next Page »