North Star Blog

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New Yorker on the Republican primary contest:

At least in theory, there is plenty of time for the dynamics of the primary to shift. But is that likely?

Many political observers don’t think it is, but Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican consultant and pollster, told me on Friday that the result of the primary is more uncertain than the polls suggest. (Ayres, who has advised a broad range of G.O.P. politicians, including Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, and DeSantis, isn’t currently advising any 2024 Republican candidate.) “Being honest, it’s a long shot for anybody not named Trump,” he said. “But I also think it’s premature to write anybody off.” Ayres based this conclusion on his analysis of the Republican electorate, which he says is split into three parts: Trump’s base, which is about a third of the total, and will support him under virtually any circumstance; Never Trumpers, who constitute about ten to twelve per cent of G.O.P. voters; and a voting bloc that Ayres refers to as Maybe Trumpers—Republicans who voted for Trump twice and would vote for him again if he wins the nomination, but who also think he has too much baggage and are, therefore, at least willing to consider an alternative. “The real question is whether any of the other candidates can consolidate that Maybe Trump portion of the Party,” Ayres said.

To read the full article, including more of Whit’s thoughts on the race, please click here.

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Boston Globe about Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump, and the modern Republican party:

“Reagan has become a revered historical figure, but he’s not a particularly relevant figure in today’s GOP,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “Trump has completely redefined the GOP, so that everyone is evaluated in relationship with Trump and their attitude about him.”

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Whit Ayres’ comments in Vox about the classified documents indictment against former President Trump and its potential impact on the nominating results:

But other strategists say that sentiments could change as the severity of the indictment and what it means for Trump’s electability sink in, especially among those in the party that GOP pollster Whit Ayres calls the “Maybe Trump” voters: people who like the former president, but also want someone who can win.

“Will the Trump pushback that this is all a partisan witch hunt be persuasive to them?” he asked. “Or will the devastating facts laid out in the indictment persuade at least some of them that Trump is carrying way too much baggage to win a general election in 2024?”

For now, he said, it’s too early to tell.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres’ comments in Vox on the DeSantis v. Trump battle in the Republican presidential primary:

DeSantis, once a protege of Trump, faces the challenge of consolidating enough support behind him to challenge the former president’s historically high polling margin over DeSantis.

That involves winning over both the faction of the GOP that never thought Trump was fit for office and the majority of Republican voters who are what ex-DeSantis pollster Whit Ayres calls “Maybe Trump” voters. DeSantis has to concede that he won’t win “Always Trump” voters, who represent about a third of the party, Ayres said. 

“The key for anyone challenging Trump will be to consolidate that ‘Maybe Trump’ faction of the party and maybe pick up a few of the ‘Never Trumpers,’” Ayres said. “But no candidate is going to be able to penetrate the ‘Always Trump’ third of the party. They’ve already decided who they’re going to vote for, and they’re not interested in anyone else.”

Which is why DeSantis may not be able to afford to be overly critical of Trump, and trying to beat the former president at his own game — the name-calling and personal smears, for instance — is probably a losing proposition. “Everyone who engages Donald Trump in a very personal mud fight ends up losing because he is the all-time champion of the vicious personal attack,” Ayres said. 

But DeSantis can distinguish himself on policy and his viability as a candidate. Ayres said that DeSantis would also be wise to emphasize the baggage Trump brings. That might not include Trump’s indictment in New York, which many Republican voters saw as a politically motivated attack from a Democratic district attorney, giving the former president a bump in the polls. But there may be more criminal charges and legal troubles to come. 

“The key is drawing a contrast with [Trump] on those areas where he is most vulnerable — the amount of baggage that he carries and his potential to lose to Joe Biden or whoever the Democrats come up with in 2024,” Ayres said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times about former President Trump’s support in the Republican primary:

“Trump is obviously the favorite, but he’s beatable,” Republican strategist Alex Conant said. “He’s beatable because the race isn’t static. The poll numbers today are not what they will be six months from now.”

GOP pollster Whit Ayres agreed and pointed to evidence that primary voters are open to other candidates.

In focus groups, he said, he’s encountered “people who voted for Trump, who like what he did as president, but they don’t think Trump can win this time. … They want somebody who has a different temperament.”

Ayres estimates that roughly a third of Republicans are unshakable “Always Trump” loyalists.

But a larger chunk of the GOP electorate, about 60%, consists of people who voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 but are willing to consider alternatives — a group he calls “Maybe Trump.”

They’re a potential majority in Republican primaries, and that makes them the key to the nomination.

Polls suggest Ayres is right.

To read the full article, please click here.

Dan Judy’s comments to The Hill regarding the state of play in the Republican presidential primaries:

“There is definitely room for another candidate — though perhaps only one, ultimately, if Trump and DeSantis suck all the air out of the room,” said GOP strategist Dan Judy.

Judy argued that a large swath of the electorate in the GOP primary can be best defined as “Maybe Trump.” These voters are not hostile to the former president in the same way as the more fervent but smaller “Never Trump” camp is, but they would nevertheless prefer some other candidate as nominee.

Judy pointed out that there is still some possibility, however small, that DeSantis might take a pass on the race. More pertinently, if the Florida governor does get in, there are no guarantees that he will live up to his supporters’ expectations.

“If he gets in and is not ready for prime time or does not make the impression that a lot of people expect that he will, then what happens? Is it, ‘Fine, ‘we’ll just give it to Trump’ or are we looking for someone else?”

To read the full article, please click here.