Whit Ayres’ comments in The New Yorker on the Republican primary contest:
At least in theory, there is plenty of time for the dynamics of the primary to shift. But is that likely?
Many political observers don’t think it is, but Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican consultant and pollster, told me on Friday that the result of the primary is more uncertain than the polls suggest. (Ayres, who has advised a broad range of G.O.P. politicians, including Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, and DeSantis, isn’t currently advising any 2024 Republican candidate.) “Being honest, it’s a long shot for anybody not named Trump,” he said. “But I also think it’s premature to write anybody off.” Ayres based this conclusion on his analysis of the Republican electorate, which he says is split into three parts: Trump’s base, which is about a third of the total, and will support him under virtually any circumstance; Never Trumpers, who constitute about ten to twelve per cent of G.O.P. voters; and a voting bloc that Ayres refers to as Maybe Trumpers—Republicans who voted for Trump twice and would vote for him again if he wins the nomination, but who also think he has too much baggage and are, therefore, at least willing to consider an alternative. “The real question is whether any of the other candidates can consolidate that Maybe Trump portion of the Party,” Ayres said.
To read the full article, including more of Whit’s thoughts on the race, please click here.