Jon McHenry, May 19

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller regarding Joe Biden’s legislation and impacts on swing state voting:

“I think the problem for President Biden in Pennsylvania is that there really are not enough jobs created in these bills — especially in the near future — to offset the losses of his curbs on natural gas,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst who works for North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “Even if voters know about potential gains down the road, what they really know is likely job losses that are a direct result of what could be called the ‘war on gas.’ And of course, the president is in a box because any backing away from his green energy rhetoric will upset his base.”

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Whit Ayres, May 14

Whit Ayres’ comments to The New York Times regarding President Biden and his reelection prospects:

“People associated with the administration are beating their heads against the wall saying, ‘Why aren’t they giving us any credit?’” said Whit Ayres, another veteran Republican pollster.

“But even if they did give him credit, voters think he is too old to serve effectively in a second term,” Mr. Ayres said, citing recent polling by ABC that demonstrates concerns over the 81-year-old president’s age.

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, April 29

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller on the possible effects of Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s candidacy:

“Kennedy has, I think, more lasting impact on this race than most people thought he would,” Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “All he really needs to be on is Arizona, Georgia, you know, Nevada, a handful of states, North Carolina, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin. He only needs to be on the ballot in five or six states to have an impact on this, because even if he only takes 3%, that’s enough to swing a bunch of states.”

While McHenry still believes that Kennedy “hurts both candidates pretty equally,” he issued a warning to Republicans about the independent’s candidacy.

“He’s sort of been a darling for Republicans for a while because he’s anti-vaccine, and, ‘yeah, he’s a Democrat who’s running against Biden, that’s great!’ And then he goes out and gets a progressive running mate, and they go, ‘oh, wait, is he actually a liberal?’ Yeah, actually, he is,” McHenry told the DCNF. “This sort of implicit permission to vote for RFK Jr. has the potential to backfire in the end.”

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2024 Presidential Election Outlook

Jon McHenry, March 26

Jon McHenry appeared on NPR’s All Things Considered to discuss the U.S. stance toward Israel:

Republican pollster Jon McHenry says there may be an opportunity for Trump to present a more vigorous foreign policy with an ally – and win back some more traditional Republican voters he lost during the primaries. 

“That may actually be an entré for him to get them to say, ‘OK, maybe I don’t agree with him on Ukraine, but I do agree with him on Israel,'” said McHenry of North Star Opinion Research. “And that’s better than what I’m seeing out of Joe Biden.”

To read the article or listen to the segment, please click here.

Whit Ayres, March 11

Whit Ayres’ comments to Vox on voters’ perceptions of the economy:

“The fundamental problem for Biden and the Democrats is that while the rate of inflation is down, it’s not going backwards,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. “It’s hard to persuade people that things are better.”

“The general perception is that the economy was better before the pandemic than it is now,” said Ayres, the GOP pollster. “And that perception is powerful politically.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, March 10

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Washington Post about the 2024 general election campaign:

Reelection campaigns generally favor the incumbent. But Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and no friend of Trump, sees Biden as the clear underdog. He cites public dissatisfaction with the overall direction of the country, and notes that Trump is seen as more trusted on the economy and immigration and that an overwhelming percentage of Americans see the incumbent as too old to hold the toughest office in the world.

Yet he added, “In this sea of uncertainty, I am hesitant to make a flat statement [about the outcome in November]. With two historically unpopular candidates, it feels less stable than it appears on the surface.” Still, he argued that the Democrats’ best chance of winning today “would be to find a different candidate.”

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Whit Ayres, February 19

Whit Ayres’ comment to The New York Times about voters’ feelings about the likely 2024 election matchup:

“Exhaustion is underlying the entire attitude toward our presidential election,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “When you’ve got two people that are opposed by 70 percent of Americans who want a different choice, it creates frustration, anxiety and discouragement.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, February 11

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Times of London regarding Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s liabilities:

“I guess his staff are too scared,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and president of North Star Opinion Research. “He can’t get through an interview without creating more problems for himself.”

“Most people can’t quite believe that [Biden] is even thinking about running again, and they certainly don’t like the idea that he’s one of their only two choices to be president of the United States,” said Ayres. “The other one is facing 91 felony counts. It’s like the vast majority of Americans are going, wait a minute, in a country of 330 million people, are these choices the best we can do?”

To read the full article ($) please click here.

Whit Ayres, February 2

Whit Ayres joined Bill Kristol on his podcast Conversations, saying this about the prospects of another Biden-Trump race:

Trump would win in a landslide in the electoral college if the election were held today and the reason is that Joe Biden is the weakest American president since Jimmy Carter, and there’s some similarity between the two men.

To listen to the podcast, please click here.