You are here: Home / Perspectives / North Star Blog

North Star Blog

« Previous Page

Whit Ayres, November 15

November 15, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press regarding election denialism and Republican election results:

“It turns out that trying to overturn an election is not wildly popular with the American people,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster.

That even extends to Arizona, Ayres added, where a prominent former television newscaster-turned-election-conspiracy-theorist, Kari Lake, remains in a right race for governor against Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, whose campaign has been widely panned.

“The fact that it is close with a very polished, very good Republican candidate and a very weak, very unpolished Democratic candidate tells you how much of a weight election denial is on a Republican candidate,” Ayres said.

To read the full article please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, November 13

November 13, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post about former President Donald Trump and the future of the Republican Party:

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, says the party’s electorate can be divided into three key buckets. A small group, roughly 10 percent, are “Never Trumpers,” Republicans who have long and vocally opposed Trump. A far larger group, about 40 percent, are “Always Trumpers,” his hardcore base that will never abandon him.

The remaining 50 percent or so, Ayres said, are “Maybe Tumpers” — Republicans who voted for him twice, who generally like his policies but who are now eager to escape the chaos that accompanies him.

“So they are open to supporting someone else who will do much of what they want without all of the baggage,” Ayres said. “So then the question becomes: Who?”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, November 10

November 10, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments on the midterm elections in The Washington Post:

“With inflation at a 40-year high, crime out of control in many cities and our southern borders still porous, coupled with Joe Biden’s job approval in the low 40s, Republicans should have run away with this election,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “It should never have been close.”

To read more, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, October 25

October 25, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in STAT News regarding Republican views of elites and experts:

“In many ways, doubts about expertise have fed into the whole populist movement, which essentially is … anti-elite, anti-establishment, anti-expertise,” said Whit Ayres, a political consultant with North Star Opinion Research who has advised GOP candidates including DeSantis. “Populism has a real problem in presenting a positive vision for the country. It’s ‘the experts are part of the establishment, so we’re against them too.’”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Jon McHenry, October 24

October 24, 2022 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The New York Times regarding challenges in polling:

If there is a big miss this cycle it’s likely to be driven by voters who are less educated not participating in the polls. The people you do get on the phone, you can always weight them up … but you don’t know exactly who you’re missing. And that’s always been the kind of thing that will keep a pollster up at night.But the numbers were really good in 2018.

Are we in that sort of midterm where Trump is not on the ballot and missing those people isn’t as much of a concern?

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Polling Methodology, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, October 19

October 19, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New Republic on the national mood and midterm elections:

“Republicans should be running away with this election. With [President] Biden’s job approval in the low 40s, with inflation at a 40-year high and not moderating, with crime a serious problem in many cities, and with the border still not under control, Republicans should be cleaning up,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. “Republicans still are overwhelming favorites to take the House and have at least a 50-50 chance to take the Senate, but it’s closer than it should be because of the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion energizing Democratic women and because Republicans have nominated a number of inexperienced first-time candidates. So that’s keeping it closer than it would otherwise be.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate

Jon McHenry, October 19

October 19, 2022 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The Boston Globe about school choice and parental rights:

School choice and parental rights, especially after the last two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, are often a reliable way for Republicans running in statewide races to talk about issues that are typically favorable to their campaigns, according to GOP pollster Jon McHenry.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Education, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Parental Rights, Uncategorized

Whit Ayres, October 14

October 14, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic about the effects of polarization:

“The difference in policy now between the group that has 51 percent and the group that has 49 percent is so enormous because of the polarization and divergence of the two parties,” the longtime GOP pollster Whit Ayres told me. Such big change resting on such small shifts, Ayres added, “is not healthy for democracy.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, October 8

October 8, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Hill regarding Ben Sasse leaving the U.S. Senate:

“Ben Sasse was one of the people who made the Senate work,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “And there’s a pattern of a lot people who made the Senate work who are leaving the institution, and that’s not good for the country and not good for our democracy.”

Ayres suspects that Sasse and other retiring Senate Republicans are fed up with what he called “the toxic polarization” that’s made it “difficult to do the things that led them to run for the Senate in the first place.” 

To read more, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Uncategorized

Jon McHenry, September 14

September 14, 2022 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The Boston Globe regarding abortion policy and politics:

“I do think that he is trying to stake out a position that Republicans can unify behind,” said Jon McHenry, a GOP pollster and strategist. “It gives them a talking point or a position that allows them to say, ‘We believe that women do have some discretion.’ ” And, he said, it volleys the volatile issue back to the other party. “Make Democrats defend or lay out the case for why you should be able to get an abortion at, say, six months,” said McHenry.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips

Dan Judy, May 15

May 15, 2022 by

Dan Judy’s comments in Politico on new methodologies:

“For us, any experimentation in real time has consequences,” said Dan Judy, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research. “You have to be careful about what you’re doing. If you try it the old way, and the old way is dead, then you end up with 2020. But if you try something new, and the new way is also improper, maybe you get a different result — but it could also be wrong. That’s what keeps you awake at night, trying to strike that balance.”

Judy added that he feels good about polling in 2022, “because I feel like what we know works is still likely to work in this midterm. But in the next presidential, that’s when things are going to get dicey.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Polling Methodology

Whit Ayres, March 23

March 24, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times regarding the influence of former President Donald Trump’s endorsements:

All of which suggests Trump’s sway over Republican voters — and, by extension, the Republican Party — is diminishing the further he gets from the White House.

“A president’s endorsement is going to carry more weight than an ex-president’s endorsement,” said Q. Whitfield Ayres, a GOP strategist with extensive experience in congressional and gubernatorial races nationwide. “Especially an ex-president without access to Twitter and social media.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Perspectives, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, March 3 (AP)

March 3, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press regarding Joe Biden’s approval rating:

So the president spent the evening essentially asking for a fresh start, born of the most serious conflict with Russia in a generation, and another chance to explain his domestic agenda. “He’s got his back to the wall, and he’s put his party’s back against the wall,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster.

To read the whole article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, March 3

March 3, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post about Joe Biden’s approach on Ukraine:

“Like President George H.W. Bush, who quietly but persistently rallied allies to support reversing Saddam Hussein’s occupation of Kuwait in 1991,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres told me. “President Biden’s quiet diplomacy has been effective in rallying the West against Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But Biden will probably not get the credit Bush did because American troops are not directly involved in Ukraine.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Foreign Policy, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, February 18

February 18, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to NBC News regarding the effect of foreign policy decisions on elections:

“As a general rule, foreign policy events that do not involve American kids dying in a war pale in comparison to domestic issues,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “As long as Americans are not dying — as they were in Iraq in 2006 [when then-President George W. Bush’s Republican Party lost seats in both the House and the Senate] — foreign policy does not normally drive electoral outcomes.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Foreign Policy, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, Midterm Elections, National Security, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, February 7

February 7, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times on Dr. Anthony Fauci:

“Populism is essentially anti: anti-establishment, anti-expertise, anti-intellectual and anti-media,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, adding that Dr. Fauci “is an establishment expert intellectual who is in the media.”

…

The anti-Fauci fervor has taken its toll on his personal life; he has received death threats, his family has been harassed and his home in Washington is guarded by a security detail. His standing with the public has also suffered. In a recent NBC News Poll, just 40 percent of respondents said they trusted Dr. Fauci, down from 60 percent in April 2020.

Still, Mr. Ayres said, Dr. Fauci remains for many Americans “one of the most trusted voices regarding the pandemic.” In a Gallup pollat the end of 2021, his job approval rating was 52 percent. On a list of 10 officials, including Mr. Biden and congressional leaders, only two scored higher: Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Jerome H. Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Republican strategists are split on whether attacking Dr. Fauci is a smart strategy. Mr. Ayres said it could help rev up the base in a primary but backfire in a general election, especially in a swing state like Ohio. But John Feehery, another strategist, said many pandemic-weary Americans viewed Dr. Fauci as “Mr. Lockdown,” and it made sense for Republicans “to run against both Fauci and lockdowns.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, Health Care, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, January 29

January 31, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to The New York Times regarding perceptions of Joe Biden’s presidency:

“The left is disappointed with him and the anti-Trump Republicans and independents thought they were going to get a moderate governing,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “I don’t know how resolving the pandemic is going to affect that fundamental reality that he is completely misplaying his hand.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, Joe Biden, News Clips, Republicans

Dan Judy, January 6

January 7, 2022 by

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill regarding President Trump’s cancelled January 6 press conference:

GOP strategist Dan Judy, who is aligned with the more moderate wing of the party, said, “When I heard it was canceled, I was like, ‘Thank God.’ Everyone could have predicted it would have been this totally revisionist view of what happened on Jan. 6.

“That would have been repugnant on its face, and it would also have been horrible for Republican candidates in the midterms, who have the wind at their backs and do not need this kind of ‘Rah-rah, Jan. 6!’ kind of talk.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Trump

Whit Ayres, January 5

January 7, 2022 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times on Donald Trump and his effect on the 2022 elections:

Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster, said that Mr. Trump’s backing was powerful in primaries, but a “very, very mixed blessing” in swing districts.

“It’s pretty clear that candidates who want to be competitive in the general election are being careful how close they get to him during primaries,” he said. He pointed to Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin of Virginia as having offered a “classic example” of the type of balancing act necessary.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, December 6

December 7, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in USA Today about the late Senator Bob Dole:

“He was one of the greatest of the greatest generation,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican consultant.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, November 4

November 4, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic regarding the nationalization of state and local elections:

“We’ve had increasing nationalization of our politics in an almost straight line for the past 25 years,” Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster based in Virginia, told me. “You used to say all politics is local. That seems like an anachronistic statement today. The polarization and the partisanship is driven down the ballot in a way that you never saw in the 1980s and 1990s. Now you have state legislative races that are being nationalized.”

To read the full article, please click here (paywall, but with some free articles each month).

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate, Suburban Voters, Virginia

Whit Ayres, October 27

November 2, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to Yahoo News regarding President Biden’s job approval ratings:

For Republican pollster Whit Ayres, the social welfare and climate package alone would also not restore Biden’s approval because the drop was caused by multiple factors.

Ayres, the president of North Star Opinion Research, listed the COVID-19 pandemic, a sluggish post-lockdown economy, the “unresolved” illegal migrant situation at the southern border, and the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan “fiasco” as other explanations for Biden’s polling dip.

“The ultimate problem is that he presented himself as someone who is competent at the job and knows how the system works, and the system doesn’t seem to be working,” he said.

But Ayres agreed with Democratic strategists who told the Washington Examiner the spending measure disarray would not irrevocably damage Biden’s presidency if the party eventually brokered an accord. If not, it could create “a huge headwind” for Democrats before the 2022 midterm elections, he warned.

“The president’s job approval is one of the best predictors of his party’s performance in the midterms. And if Biden’s approval stays down in the low forties, that’s a real problem for other Democratic candidates next year,” he said. “A president at 60% job approval has a lot more political juice than one at 40%.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, October 22

October 22, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Associated Press about the popularity of legislative proposals and the effect on midterm elections:

To Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, “the popularity of particular policies has been overwhelmed by the power of partisanship and polarization.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Midterm Elections, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, October 19

October 19, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments on the political effect of tying Republican candidates to President Trump:

Which means there has probably never been a midterm election when a former president was as much a part of the political dialogue as Trump is now. The Virginia result will offer a first gauge of how much that new factor can change the usual midterm dynamics favoring the party out of the White House.

“We’re going to find out in the Virginia race because McAuliffe has puts an enormous number of chips on the table betting that a focus on tying Youngkin to Trump will motivate Democratic base voters as well as independents,” said Virginia-based Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “We are going to get a test of that very soon.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Trump

Dan Judy, October 11

October 11, 2021 by

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill about President Biden’s political standing:

Republican strategist Dan Judy asserted that “the bloom is off the Joe Biden rose” after about nine months in power.

From a political standpoint, “Democrats are going to need the COVID tide to recede and the economy to surge forward if they really are to have any chance of keeping their majority, at least in the House,” Judy said. “The Republicans could take over the House almost by accident with such a small majority for the Democrats right now.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Jobs and the Economy, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate

Dan Judy, September 9

September 9, 2021 by

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill regarding President Trump’s position in the political landscape:

Still, when Trump tries to show his muscle by offering an endorsement, there is always the danger that the results will cut in the opposite direction.

“When he was president of the United States and he could lay the anointing finger on certain candidates, that’s one thing,” said Dan Judy, a GOP strategist associated with the more traditional wing of the party. “Now, it’s very fraught. Everybody is going to want the Trump endorsement but that is not necessarily going to win you a primary in these heavily contested races.”

Judy also noted two other points that he said were obvious but sometimes overlooked.

One is that Trump’s status is eroded simply because he’s not president anymore. The other is that there are a lot of major events going on in which he is not really a player.

“You’ve got the delta surge, Afghanistan, natural disasters — really big news stories that are impacting people’s lives on a daily basis,” Judy said. “And Donald Trump shouting at a rally really pales in comparison to a lot of that stuff.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, July 30

July 30, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Guardian regarding Republican office holders encouraging their constituents to get vaccinated against COVID-19:

One thing that’s clear among pollsters: the change in tone from Republican lawmakers has not been prompted by new polling. Rather it’s because of the increasing urgency that US political figures are feeling about a pandemic that is far from over and may be on the brink of entering a new, dangerous phase.

“There’s data out there but it’s not polling data, it’s Covid data. The surge in the Delta variant is coming largely in Republican states and particularly in Republican rural counties of states and it’s that data that has led these Republican leaders to speak out more forcefully,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster.

“Now, it needs to be said that some Republican leaders like Mitch McConnell have always been forceful advocates for vaccinations, driven by the fact that he had polio as a kid and we no longer have polio because of vaccines. But there’s no question that more Republican figures like Kay Ivey, the governor of Alabama, have been more vociferous of late because so many people are getting infected who need not get infected if they simply got the vaccine.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, June 1

June 16, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times on COVID vaccines and politics:

“Traditionally Republicans have been very against government interference in free enterprise, and into the workings of the private market,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. He said it was too early to say how vaccine politics would affect the 2022 midterms, but added, “It’s going to be a big issue.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Coronavirus, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, June 4

June 16, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to National Public Radio regarding the GOP and declining Christian identification in the electorate:

This makes religion one key part of a looming, long-term demographic challenge for Republicans, says Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

“Republicans clearly have a stronger hold among the religiously affiliated, especially evangelical Protestants. And consequently, any decline in evangelical Protestant affiliation is not good news for the GOP,” he said.

The upshot, to Ayres, is that a party still deeply entwined with conservative Christianity and, particularly, white evangelicals will eventually have to win over more Christian conservatives — for example, among the growing Hispanic electorate — or make gains among substantially less-religious groups, like young voters.

To read or listen to the full story, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Faith, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, May 13

May 13, 2021 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal regarding House Republicans voting to remove Liz Cheney from party leadership:

Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster based in Alexandria, Va., argued that if the GOP wants to rally a majority of the electorate behind its agenda, the party can’t afford for its base to contract.

“The GOP has lost tens of thousands of suburban voters over the last two election cycles, many of them college-educated women,” Mr. Ayres said. “Those suburban women left the party for a reason, and this move [against Ms. Cheney] reminds them of the reason why.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Suburban Voters
« Previous Page
Next Page »