Whit Ayres, June 25

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic on increasing electoral challenges for Republicans in the once solid South:

Even the Republicans relatively confident that Trump’s grip on rural voters will allow him to hold most, if not all, of these states recognize the implications of a trend that has them losing ground in the communities that are preponderantly driving economic and population growth.

“The trends of 2016, ’17, ’18 are continuing apace, with continuing weakness of the Republican brand in suburban areas that had traditionally voted Republican, coupled with strengthening of the Republican brand in rural areas that had traditionally voted Democrat,” Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who has long specialized in southern suburbs, told me. “The problem, of course, is that the Republicans are trading larger, faster-growing areas for smaller, slower-growing areas, and the math does not work out in the long run with that sort of trade.”

The core political question in the large Sun Belt metro areas may be whether residents are grateful that their governors have given them more freedom to resume daily activities or resentful that they have put them at greater risk by reopening so widely. Ayres said the answer is likely some of both. “I really think there’s a limit to how long you can enforce a rigid lockdown in a country where freedom and liberty are core values,” he told me. “That said, it is now impossible to dismiss this pandemic as a hoax or just the flu or any of the other dismissive appellations that have been applied to it.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 23

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding coronavirus and health care policy:

“It certainly increases the pressure for some sort of minimal health care coverage that everyone can count on,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

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Whit Ayres, May 29

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding racial justice, protests, and riots in the wake of George Floyd’s killing:

“Most Americans are fair-minded people who want justice to be done in situations where wrong has occurred,” the Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. “But they also believe that you shouldn’t go out destroying innocent people’s property and threatening people’s lives as a means of doing so.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, May 4

Whit Ayres’ comments on political credibility in Sahara Reporters:

There are “three keys to credibility,” says Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant. “One, never defend the indefensible. Two, never deny the undeniable. And no 3 is: Never lie.”

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Whit Ayres, May 3

Whit Ayres’ comments to Bloomberg News regarding re-opening the economy during the coronavirus pandemic:

“You’re balancing competing values: the importance of the economy and the food chain and the importance of public health,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “You’re making judgment calls with no obvious answers.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Dan Judy, April 17

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill regarding public views of the coronavirus pandemic:

There are “individual choices and behavior regardless of what the government says,” said GOP strategist Dan Judy. “If people aren’t ready to go back, they are not going to go back. And right now, people are still worried.”

For now, the outcome simply cannot be known.

“It’s an extremely difficult decision from both a political and policy standpoint. For any president, this would be an extremely hard decision,” said Judy. 

“The difficulty of it gets lost in the whole Trump circus. If Barack Obama or Ronald Reagan or Abraham Lincoln was president, it would still be an extremely hard decision.”

To read the whole article, please click here.

Dan Judy, April 6

Dan Judy’s comments to Bloomberg Government regarding telephone surveys during the coronavirus pandemic:

“We are seeing response rates higher than we’ve seen in many years,’’ said Dan Judy, who polls for Republican candidates at North Star Opinion Research in Alexandria, Va. 

The response rate for polls has been in decline for years, as many people have discontinued their land lines to use only mobile phones, which are harder to reach. 

To maximize results, pollsters have developed procedures, such as not calling on Friday nights, when people are usually out at restaurants or social engagements, or avoiding calling people on their mobile phones during the day when they’re at work and distracted.

Now, many of those protocols are unnecessary, Judy said.

“Day-dialing cellphones is potentially something we could do,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, April 12

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Hill on polling during the coronavirus pandemic:

The coronavirus has led to a drawdown in political spending across the board, leading to a slowdown in everything from polls to media ad buys.

Fundraisers are having a tough time raising cash from once-reliable donors. Campaigns aren’t running political ads and they’re less likely to commission a poll, with the general election still six months out and the economy in turmoil.

“It’s a great time to get people on the phone — maybe the best response rates in a dozen years — but it’s not necessarily the most likely time for clients to want to be in the field,” said Jon McHenry, the pollster for North Star Opinion Research.

“There’s no telling how the virus plays out for people’s health and for the economy a month from now, much less in September and later. There are clients who stand to benefit from a benchmark survey now, figuring out effective criticisms and which policies are supported, but the horserace is dicier,” he added.

And the transition from crowded calling centers to having people work from home has been a challenge, as it has been for many industries.

McHenry said the shift to a remote workplace might hasten the move to more online polling and research.

“We’re still using the same vendors. For a lot of phone centers, that means people working on a … system from home,” said McHenry. “The technology allows that in a way you probably couldn’t have done 10 years ago and for sure couldn’t have done 20 years ago. And for national research, much of that is online anyway. This may be the final push for the few holdouts to accept online research as the primary methodology on national work.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, NBC News, April 4

Whit Ayres’ comments to NBC News on the initial ratings for President Trump during the coronavirus pandemic:

“There’s nothing that’s happened in the last three years that remotely approaches the significance of this event,” said Whit Ayers, a Republican pollster with the firm North Star Opinion Research. “The president’s clearly gotten a modest bump in his job approval as the country pulls together to try to fight this pandemic.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, April 4

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Los Angeles Times regarding views of President Trump during the coronavirus pandemic:

“Attitudes about the president are deeply ingrained, both positive and negative,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “So there is a powerful tendency to view the president’s performance through the preexisting lens.”

To read the full article, please click here.