Dan Judy’s comments to The Hill regarding the state of play in the Republican presidential primaries:

“There is definitely room for another candidate — though perhaps only one, ultimately, if Trump and DeSantis suck all the air out of the room,” said GOP strategist Dan Judy.

Judy argued that a large swath of the electorate in the GOP primary can be best defined as “Maybe Trump.” These voters are not hostile to the former president in the same way as the more fervent but smaller “Never Trump” camp is, but they would nevertheless prefer some other candidate as nominee.

Judy pointed out that there is still some possibility, however small, that DeSantis might take a pass on the race. More pertinently, if the Florida governor does get in, there are no guarantees that he will live up to his supporters’ expectations.

“If he gets in and is not ready for prime time or does not make the impression that a lot of people expect that he will, then what happens? Is it, ‘Fine, ‘we’ll just give it to Trump’ or are we looking for someone else?”

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Whit Ayres’ comments in Time on the 2024 Donald Trump campaign:

So far, Trump’s campaign is “disjointed, haphazard, unfocused, and still focused on the past, and his grievances, rather than the future, which is what attracted a lot of Republicans to him in 2015,” says Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. Nonetheless, Trump still has a grip on a meaningful slice of his party’s base. According to polling Ayres conducted with North Star Opinion Research, about 30% to 40% of GOP voters fall into what Ayres describes as “always Trump,” people who say they will support Trump no matter what. That is a strong base from which to wage a Republican primary campaign, Ayres says.

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Whit Ayres’ comments to US News and World Report regarding former President Trump’s prospects in the 2024 Republican presidential primary:

Though some of the most recent polling suggests that Trump’s support among Republicans may be falling slightly, within that general support lies a core group of 35 to 40% of “always-Trumpers,” says Whit Ayers, GOP strategist and president of North Star Opinion Research. “They believe he hung the moon, they’ll walk through a wall of flame for him, they’ll defend him until hell freezes over.”

…

To win the primary, a candidate needs a plurality rather than a majority. Though Trump’s core supporters would not, on their own, guarantee his victory in the primaries if it becomes a one-on-one contest with another candidate – as demonstrated by recent polls showing his loss in several states in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against DeSantis – his path could be much easier if two or more serious contenders split the vote of, what Ayers estimates, is about half of Republicans who supported Trump but are tired of his controversies and open to supporting someone else.

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