Resurgent Republic has noted the similarities between Independents and Republicans on a host of issues since our first poll in 2009. Conservatives have the upper hand with these voters for now, and the party best able to appeal to Independents in 2012 will win the White House and may well claim both chambers of Congress.
We largely expect Republican men and women, and Democratic men and women, to hold similar views regardless of gender. An examination of our research from this year – specifically Independents by gender – shows that Republicans have the potential to expand their lead among Independents overall by maximizing their potential among Independent women.
According to our most recent survey, Independent women are less conservative (34 percent) than Independent men (44 percent), and currently favor Republicans by smaller margins than men on the presidential ballot (42 to 35 percent versus 44 to 29 percent) and the generic congressional ballot (34 to 32 percent versus 38 to 26 percent among men). While Independent women have the same views of Republicans in Congress as men (34 to 56 percent favorable to unfavorable, compared to 32 to 58 percent among men) they hold Democrats in somewhat higher regard (35 to 52 percent, compared to 26 to 64 percent). Regarding the Tea Party, Independent men split (44 to 43 percent) while Independent women view the movement unfavorably (36 to 48 percent).
But opinion on a number of questions shows that Independent women could move to the same levels of Republican support seen among Independent men. Independent women, for example, are more likely to say the economy is worse now than when President Obama took office (70 percent versus 61 percent among Independent men), say the federal government’s financial situation is worse (77 percent versus 70 percent), and say their own personal financial situation is worse (40 percent versus 27 percent).
While Independent women are more likely to say President Obama is an outsider trying to change the way Washington works (52 to 37 percent, with men saying he is an insider who is part of the way Washington works by a 49 to 40 percent margin), a plurality thinks the President is more interested in campaigning against Republicans (47 to 40 percent, compared to 58 to 35 percent among men). And Independent women are just as likely as Independent men to disapprove of the job the President is doing (52 to 44 percent compared to 54 to 42 percent among men); in fact, Independent women are moving away from the President, having split on his job performance in January (47 percent approved and 46 percent disapproved).
Independent women are split on President Obama’s jobs bill (47 percent agree with a statement supporting it while 46 percent agree with a statement opposing it) while Independent men oppose it by a 48 to 43 percent margin. But Independent women oppose the mortgage proposal (49 to 41 percent, compared to 55 to 36 percent among men) and agree it is a higher priority to spend less to reduce the deficit rather than spend more to help the economy (by a 59 to 34 percent margin, similar to the 58 to 35 percent margin among men).
Conservatives can win among Independent women by making the case that their approach to the economy and government spending will be more successful than President Obama’s approach, considering these women overwhelmingly say things are worse now than when the President took office. When making that case, conservatives should:
- Keep the discussion of entitlements focused on saving the programs for the future. While we’ve noted this in the past, it’s particularly important among Independent women: these voters support a liberal position on entitlements when the conservative focus is on the budget (59 to 33 percent), but support the conservative position stating that “Congressman B says Social Security is in real trouble because of so many retiring baby boomers. We can save Social Security with minor benefit adjustments for people age 55 and under, and we should do that now rather than wait until the program faces a crisis.” by a 56 to 37 percent margin. Independent men agree with conservatives regardless of the message on entitlements (August survey).
- Emphasize a goal of allowing people to buy health insurance across state lines (supported 74 to 20 percent among Independent women in January) and the unfairness of the individual mandate (supported 57 to 34 percent) when talking about the current health care law and what should replace it (January survey). While Independent women agreed with other conservative positions on health care as well – opposing the new law by a 53 to 32 percent margin, for example – these are the two strongest points with them (November survey).
- On energy, emphasize offshore drilling more than the expansion of nuclear power. While Independent women split with Independent men on nuclear power (men agree with a conservative position for more nuclear power by a 64 to 29 percent margin and women agree with a liberal position against it by a 47 to 42 percent margin), both Independent women (60 to 34 percent) and men (64 to 32 percent) agree that we need “more offshore drilling to create jobs and make us less dependent on foreign oil” (January survey).