Dan Judy, November 7

Dan Judy’s comments to CNBC on the “Kavanaugh effect” in the midterm elections:

Dan Judy, Republican pollster and vice president at North Star Opinion, said, “The fight over Justice Kavanaugh brought the stakes of this election into stark relief, and helped get Republicans motivated behind Senate candidates in ways they weren’t before.”

Judy added that “opposing Kavanaugh exposed a number of Democrats who were claiming centrist records in very conservative states.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, November 4

Whit Ayres’ comment in The New York Times on President Trump’s appeal to base voters in the midterm elections:

Mr. Trump, who promised after his victory in 2016 to be a president for “all Americans,” has been fixated this year on visiting states that were critical to his Electoral College win and doubling down on nurturing his homogeneous base in those places. Many Republicans privately worry that in terms of the future health of their party, the outreach and agenda they are pursuing feels a lot like the president’s travel footprint: provincial and small.

“No one has repealed the long-term demographic trends in the country,” said Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster. “At some point, Republicans are going to have to reach out beyond the base if they hope to win a majority of the popular vote in the future.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, November 1

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic on President Trump’s focus during the midterms:

Trump’s closing emphasis on culture may, in fact, represent a kind of triage for the GOP that effectively concedes large suburban losses in the House, but tries to protect more rural and blue-collar districts, as well as GOP Senate candidates in states fitting the latter description. “That’s not an unreasonable interpretation of it,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. Trump’s cultural messaging, he added, “may help in some rural blue-collar districts, but it sure doesn’t help in the suburban districts that are so important to help keep the House.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, October 4

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times regarding partisan views of the Kavanaugh hearings:

“Like so many events today, people view this through their partisan filters to reinforce what they already think,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “The main difference we’ve seen since the Kavanaugh hearings is an increase in Republican enthusiasm. It doesn’t quite match the sky-high Democratic enthusiasm, but they have helped to close the gap in intensity.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, October 3

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding diversity among GOP nominees and office holders:

Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster who wrote a book called “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in a New America,” said that while the party could benefit from more minority candidates, this election cycle could also just be an anomaly. Mr. Ayres, who worked with Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s failed presidential campaign in 2016, pointed to several minority Republicans who are currently in prominent offices, such as South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and Ms. Haley, who stepped down as governor of South Carolina to become Mr. Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.

“We have many candidates both in Texas and Florida, like Marco Rubio, who have won a majority of the Hispanic vote in their campaign,” Mr. Ayres said. “So it’s perfectly possible for Republican candidates, without in any way moderating their fundamental principles, to succeed in the Hispanic community. But you have to try.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, September 28

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Los Angeles Times on the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

“It’s depressing watching this because both of these people have been seriously and permanently damaged,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who has worked with one of the main conservative groups backing Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

“It reminds me of a Shakespearean tragedy, where everybody dies in the end.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, September 24

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press on the Tennessee Senate contest:

“A lot of conservatives in Tennessee really like Phil Bredesen and really don’t want (New York Democratic Sen.) Chuck Schumer to be majority leader,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “How they wrestle with that tension likely determines the outcome of the Senate race.”

To read the full article, please click here.

How to Talk About the Mueller Investigation

Republican candidates in deeply red states and districts who can win elections with only Republican votes can adopt Donald Trump’s perspective on the Mueller investigation. But Republican candidates who need both Republican and Independent votes to win can appeal to both groups with the following arguments:

• Nobody is above the law, not even the President.

• The Mueller investigation should follow the facts wherever they lead.

• Donald Trump should not shut down the Mueller investigation, because doing so would make him look like he is guilty of wrongdoing and has something to hide.

To read the full memo, please see below.

Mueller Messaging Memo

Whit Ayres, July 27

Whit Ayres’s comments to McClatchy news service on the Trump effect in Republican primaries:

When it comes to moving Republican votes, said veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres, a Trump endorsement is “determinative.”

“At this point,” he said, ticking through a number of primary contest results, “a Trump endorsement can totally change the complexion of a race.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 28

Whit Ayres’ comments in USA Today regarding the political impact of Justice Kennedy’s retirement:

Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP pollster, said quickly confirming a new justice before the Nov. 6 midterms could prove crucial to Senate Republicans.

“It will make even more compelling the Republican argument that they have delivered on their promises and future control of the Senate is critical to accomplish conservative goals,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.