Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times about President Trump’s job approval:
“He has always been like this,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster. “It all depends upon whether his recent behavior affects his job approval or changes anyone’s opinion about him that they didn’t already have before.”
According to Mr. Ayres, the most critical variable in a midterm election is the job approval of the president. When a president has an approval above 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 14. When the president’s job approval is below 50 percent, the average loss for his party in the House is 32 seats.
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