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Whit Ayres, December 11

December 11, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal on the U.S. political system:

Asked to summarize the year 2023 in politics, Republican pollster Whit Ayres is blunt: “2023 was a terrible year for America’s political system.”

…

Meantime, the two parties appeared on track to produce a rematch in 2024’s election between Biden and Trump, a contest that polls suggest two-thirds of Americans don’t really want. The bottom line, Ayres suggests, is that “public trust in our political system is in the cellar.”

To read the full article, please click here ($).

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump

Whit Ayres, November 8

November 8, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times about the Democratic ticket:

Whit Ayres, who has spent decades polling and strategizing for Republican candidates, described the Democratic ticket of Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris as the weakest since that of George McGovern and Sargent Shriver, who were shellacked by President Nixon in 1972.

But Ayres is not convinced Republicans will win the White House.

“There’s a host of events that are going to happen between now and November 2024 that could change the outcome, or at least affect the outcome, of the election,” Ayres said. 

He’s not even certain that Biden and Trump will be their respective party nominees, though it seems more likely than not.

“There are a lot of people who are making flat statements about what’s going to happen … that might turn out to be right but could just as likely turn out to be wrong,” Ayres said, “because they’re affected by events that haven’t happened yet.”

To read the entire column, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest

Jon McHenry, October 8

October 9, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller regarding recent polling showing Donald Trump edging ahead of Joe Biden:

A Republican nominee like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley would have a better chance than Trump against Biden, according to Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research. Despite this, McHenry told the DCNF that Trump could beat Biden on the basis of the economy, though he acknowledged it’s still too close to call.

“We have such a unique situation right now with both party’s leading candidates in negative territory on their favorable to unfavorable ratings — and the current and previous officeholder. Reelection campaigns are typically a two-step process as a referendum on the incumbent: first, does he or she deserve reelection, and second, would the other candidate do better? I think right now President Biden is losing the referendum, with voters disapproving of his job overall, and especially on the economy and immigration,” said McHenry. “But if the choice is between two candidates with 35 to 40 percent favorables, voters are likely to choose the one who had the better economy.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Jobs and the Economy, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump

Whit Ayres, October 5

October 6, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments on the PBS survey and keys to the presidential election:

Voters who dislike both Trump and Biden — “the double haters,” Republican strategist Whit Ayers says — “become a swing voter group” that both parties will spend significant time and money trying to win over.

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“This is a politics of negative polarization where people feel greater animosity against the other side than they feel support for their own,” said Ayres, who has previously consulted for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sens. Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, Joe Biden, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Trump

Jon McHenry, August 14

August 15, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding the economy as an issue in the Republican primary and general election:

Letting the White House dominate the conversation isn’t good for Republicans with polls consistently showing that voters rank the economy as the most important issue, said Jon McHenry, a GOP pollster not affiliated with any of the campaigns.

“It makes a lot of sense to be out there … talking about what you’re going to do to fix the economy,” McHenry said of the candidates in the GOP primary campaign. “Republicans are better served being involved on the issue and laying the groundwork on it rather than ceding the issue to Joe Biden for the next 12 months or so.”

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McHenry said Pence was smart to frame his economic plan, which goes beyond inflation, as still primarily focused on that problem.

“It’s a good shorthand on the economy,” he said. “Just talking about inflation is a pretty good way to make sure people are on the same page with you.”

…

For now, Biden is doing more talking in detail about the economy than his Republican opponents, making Bidenomics a centerpiece of his reelection campaign.

“I don’t know if it’s the dumbest or gutsiest move I’ve seen politically in the last 20 years,” McHenry said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Jobs and the Economy, Joe Biden, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, August 15

August 15, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to The New York Times regarding the political implications of former President Trump’s fourth indictment:

“I do think a conviction on a serious felony charge may change the views of at least the maybe-Trump cohort in the G.O.P. about his electability,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “On the other hand, an acquittal in the first case virtually assures his renomination.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Indictment(s), News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Trump

Jon McHenry, August 4

August 4, 2023 by

Jon McHenry spoke to The Daily Caller about former President Donald Trump’s third indictment:

“President Trump really benefited from the first indictment being the Alvin Bragg indictment in NY. That acted like a traditional vaccine: he got enough of a virus to inoculate him but not put him at serious risk. With those charges being seen as politically driven, Trump has been able to fight off increasingly serious charges,” Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst, told the DCNF. “Plus, this charge coming on the heels of a judge questioning a plea deal for Hunter Biden, it is relatively easy for the former president and his allies to charge that the Department of Justice has one set of standards for President Biden’s family and another set for Donald Trump.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Indictment(s), News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Trump

Whit Ayres, July 31

July 31, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Guardian regarding the challenges still facing President Joe Biden:

Whit Ayres, a political consultant and pollster, said of the policy areas: “They may be moving in the right direction but they still are major problems from the perspective of Republican voters as well as a number of independents. We are a long way from having the border under control.

“We’re a long way from having inflation back at the rate we became used to for quite a while. And crime remains a very significant problem in lots of American cities. So while each of those may not be quite as bad as they were, they are still very significant problems and likely to remain so through the election.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Featured, Immigration and Border Security, Inflation, Joe Biden, Presidential Contest

Jon McHenry, July 18

July 18, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller on the Q2 fundraising haul of Mike Pence and others:

The former vice president’s second quarter totals don’t indicate there is a “lane” for Pence, Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF, echoing Bullock’s sentiment.

“Vice President Pence’s numbers are kind of right where you’d expect: some courtesy donations in appreciation of past relationships, but nothing that suggests there is a lane for him to pursue in this race,” McHenry told the DCNF. “His association with President Trump will sour the ‘never Trump’ folks, and his refusal to derail the certification of electors ticks off the hard core Trump folks.”

…

McHenry argued the second quarter totals reveal the “importance” of the first presidential debate in August to see which candidates catch fire, and questioned whether DeSantis can garner new donors with a strong debate performance.

“It’s hard to see much of a path forward for Governor Hutchinson or Governor Christie if they don’t score some points in that debate,” said McHenry. “As much as we can romanticize Senator McCain’s comeback in 2008, riding around New Hampshire on the Straight Talk Express, he had the benefit of being the second place candidate in 2000. None of the lower tier fundraisers has that level of visibility, and something will need to change to improve their fundraising and status for them to even make the Iowa caucus.”

To read the full article — including quotes from UGA professor Chuck Bullock — please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, July 13

July 14, 2023 by

Whit Ayres joined Bill Kristol on his Conversations podcast to answer the question: Is Trump Inevitable?

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Trump
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