Political Climate

Whit Ayres, December 11

December 11, 2023 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal on the U.S. political system:

Asked to summarize the year 2023 in politics, Republican pollster Whit Ayres is blunt: “2023 was a terrible year for America’s political system.”

…

Meantime, the two parties appeared on track to produce a rematch in 2024’s election between Biden and Trump, a contest that polls suggest two-thirds of Americans don’t really want. The bottom line, Ayres suggests, is that “public trust in our political system is in the cellar.”

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump

Whit Ayres, November 8

November 8, 2023 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times about the Democratic ticket:

Whit Ayres, who has spent decades polling and strategizing for Republican candidates, described the Democratic ticket of Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris as the weakest since that of George McGovern and Sargent Shriver, who were shellacked by President Nixon in 1972.

But Ayres is not convinced Republicans will win the White House.

“There’s a host of events that are going to happen between now and November 2024 that could change the outcome, or at least affect the outcome, of the election,” Ayres said.

He’s not even certain that Biden and Trump will be their respective party nominees, though it seems more likely than not.

“There are a lot of people who are making flat statements about what’s going to happen … that might turn out to be right but could just as likely turn out to be wrong,” Ayres said, “because they’re affected by events that haven’t happened yet.”

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest

Jon McHenry, October 8

October 9, 2023 by North Star

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller regarding recent polling showing Donald Trump edging ahead of Joe Biden:

A Republican nominee like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley would have a better chance than Trump against Biden, according to Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research. Despite this, McHenry told the DCNF that Trump could beat Biden on the basis of the economy, though he acknowledged it’s still too close to call.

“We have such a unique situation right now with both party’s leading candidates in negative territory on their favorable to unfavorable ratings — and the current and previous officeholder. Reelection campaigns are typically a two-step process as a referendum on the incumbent: first, does he or she deserve reelection, and second, would the other candidate do better? I think right now President Biden is losing the referendum, with voters disapproving of his job overall, and especially on the economy and immigration,” said McHenry. “But if the choice is between two candidates with 35 to 40 percent favorables, voters are likely to choose the one who had the better economy.”

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Jobs and the Economy, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump

Dan Judy, October 3

October 6, 2023 by North Star

Dan Judy’s comments to The Hill regarding the threat of government shutdowns:

“Most voters don’t really pay attention to the Machiavellian ins-and-outs of this stuff,” GOP strategist Dan Judy told this column. “But what voters do see is continued utter dysfunction in Washington. That is what hurts the Republican brand more than the details of any specific situation.”

Judy cautioned that any political advantage for Democrats was likely to be slight, even as he expressed dismay at the recent goings-on.

“Republicans do tend to take more blame historically for shutdowns,” he said. “But this sort of brinkmanship has become so common that I think the idea of blame is sort of irrelevant in the minds of most voters. So, do Republicans take more blame? Probably. But it dirties everybody up so much.”

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Government Spending, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Dan Judy, October 3

October 3, 2023 by North Star

Dan Judy’s comments to The Hill regarding shutdown brinksmanship:

“Most voters don’t really pay attention to the Machiavellian ins-and-outs of this stuff,” GOP strategist Dan Judy told this column. “But what voters do see is continued utter dysfunction in Washington. That is what hurts the Republican brand more than the details of any specific situation.”

Judy cautioned that any political advantage for Democrats was likely to be slight, even as he expressed dismay at the recent goings-on.

“Republicans do tend to take more blame historically for shutdowns,” he said. “But this sort of brinkmanship has become so common that I think the idea of blame is sort of irrelevant in the minds of most voters. So, do Republicans take more blame? Probably. But it dirties everybody up so much.”

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Filed Under: Blog, Deficits and Debt, Featured, Government Spending, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans

Whit Ayres, July 13

July 14, 2023 by North Star

Whit Ayres joined Bill Kristol on his Conversations podcast to answer the question: Is Trump Inevitable?

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Trump

Whit Ayres, June 3

June 6, 2023 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Daily Beast on the state of the Republican Party:

“I wouldn’t jump to any premature conclusions,” cautions Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “At least people who understand governing, like Patrick McHenry, step up and the Twitter screamers have very little to offer. There are some good people there. When push comes to shove, and a meltdown of the economy is looming, even a system that often looks broken can function.” With that in mind, he adds with a flourish, “There’s hope, don’t be in despair all the time!”

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Primaries, Republicans

Whit Ayres, May 9

May 8, 2023 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Hill regarding the effect of a No Labels presidential candidate:

“In a contest with Biden and Trump, there is no way a No Labels candidate could win,” Whit Ayres, a leading Republican pollster, told me. “That candidate couldn’t win any states; they’d get zero electoral votes.”

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest

Whit Ayres, April 20

April 20, 2023 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times about electability and Donald Trump:

“It has sounded like an excuse to get conservative voters to support somebody they don’t really want, even though the argument may very well be true,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. Citing G.O.P. losses while Mr. Trump has defined the party — in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022 — Mr. Ayres added of the former president and the G.O.P. 2024 front-runner, “There is no education in the fifth kick of a mule, and yet it appears that’s where we’re headed.”

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, February 20

February 21, 2023 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding President Biden’s reelection:

Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster, said a rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump would be the best scenario for the president. “At this point, President Biden just needs to seem like he is still very much with it and able to do the job and at that point his fate is largely out of his hands,” Mr. Ayres said. “He’s got to pray the Republicans blow themselves up again.”

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Still, another challenger would pose more of a generational threat. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is 44; Nikki Haley, a former U.N. ambassador, is 51; and former Vice President Mike Pence is 63. “If the Republicans nominate a younger, vigorous person, male or female, who seems up to the job, I think he’s in trouble,” Mr. Ayres said of Mr. Biden.

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Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest