Independent Voters

Whit Ayres, June 19

June 19, 2018 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments on the Trump Administration border detention policy was cited as The New York Times‘ Quote of the Day:

“Somehow I don’t think that putting kids in cages is likely to go over very well with suburban moms,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster uneasy about running on the culture wars. Mr. Ayres said his party should campaign on “the concrete accomplishments of a Republican-held government.”

“A fabulously strong economy, a record stock market, ISIS defeated and a world without any major wars that are killing lots of Americans on a weekly basis,” he said, laying out the case.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Trump

Whit Ayres, November 29

November 29, 2016 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ column in US News on the challenges facing Republicans:

Providence has provided Republicans with an unexpected opportunity to accomplish goals many have wanted for years, by delivering control of both the presidency and Congress to the GOP. But our 2016 success should not blind us to the long-term challenges facing the party.

President-elect Donald Trump’s loss to Hillary Clinton in the popular vote means that Republicans have lost the popular vote for six of the last seven presidential elections. Trump won by threading a needle in the Electoral College, carrying four large states by one percentage point or less: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a total of 75 electoral votes.

To read the full column, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Demographics, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, Middle Class Voters, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, July 8

July 8, 2016 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in US News and World Report on Donald Trump’s effect on downballot races and the future of the Republican party:

For the moment that’s raising the prospect of resurgence in a fading voting pattern: “Just because people haven’t split their tickets in recent elections doesn’t mean they can’t spit their tickets,” says Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP pollster who also wrote a book, “2016 and Beyond” on how the GOP can regain the White House. “We are starting to see hints of the greatest amounts of ticket splitting we have seen since the 1980s.” Ayres pointed to a poll his firm conducted for Rep. Robert Dold, an Illinois Republican in a swing district; it had Clinton leading by 16 points and Dold ahead by 7 percentage points. “So there’s a 23 point difference in those numbers … which is a dramatic level of ticket splitting,” Ayres says.
…
Nominating Trump only throws accelerant on what had been a smoldering fire for the Republican Party. Because you know who Donald Trump specifically does not appeal to? Women (the gender gap is trending toward record-setting this year), nonwhite voters and young voters.

“That’s a serious danger,” says GOP pollster Ayres. “People tend stick the participation identification they adopted when they came of political age.” If Democrats can lock in voting groups whose power is only going to grow, like Latinos and millenials, “it will be exceedingly difficult for Republicans to put together a majority in future elections.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Hispanic Voters, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest

Whit Ayres, July 4 Washington Times

July 5, 2016 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Washington Times regarding ticket splitting:

While presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton tops Mr. Trump in matchups in Florida, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, incumbent Senate Republicans are all ahead in polling in their own races, building significant leads.

“We’re seeing in numerous states and districts at the moment very substantial levels of potential ticket-splitting,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

Mr. Ayres said tickets haven’t been split much in recent elections because down-ballot candidates have tended to align themselves closely with their parties’ presidential nominees. That is not the case this year, and voters are being asked to split their tickets.

“People are perfectly capable of splitting their tickets, and it looks like if the parties follow through with their presumptive nominees, then this year we could have a record level,” Mr. Ayres said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest

Whit Ayres, September 25

September 25, 2015 by North Star

David Brooks cited Whit Ayres’ book 2016 and Beyond in his New York Times column:

It’s not exactly breaking news that this is ruinous to the long-term political prospects of the party. In his book “2016 and Beyond,” the veteran pollster Whit Ayres, now working for Marco Rubio, points out that given the composition of the electorate, if the G.O.P. candidate won the same 59 percent share of the white vote that Mitt Romney won in 2012, he would have to win 30 percent of the nonwhite vote to get a majority. That’s a daunting number, given that, as Dan Balz of The Washington Post points out, Romney only won 17 percent of that vote.

To read the full column, please click here.

To read more about the book, please click here. To buy the book on Amazon, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Hispanic Voters, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate

Whit Ayres, June 27

June 27, 2015 by North Star

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding cultural issues and the presidential election:

“There will always be side issues, but none of that will compete with people’s primary concerns, which are the economy and who is going to be able to keep the country safe,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster advising Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Presidential Primaries

Whit Ayres, Forbes Magazine

March 20, 2015 by North Star

Whit Ayres was interviewed by Forbes to discuss his new book 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America:

In a new book, 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America, veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres argues that given demographic trends, Republicans need to attract more minority voters or face Democrats winning the White House in 2016 and on into the foreseeable future. Ayres is founder and president of North Star Opinion Researchand has consulted for high level Republican candidates and conservative organizations.

To read the interview, please click here.

Filed Under: Featured, Hispanic Voters, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate

Jon McHenry, September 19

September 19, 2013 by North Star

Jon McHenry’s comments in US News and World Report on ObamaCare and a potential government shutdown:

On its own, GOP pollster Jon McHenry says repealing and dismantling Obamacare is a great issue that attracts the Republican base, a majority of independents and even a fraction of Democratic voters to the GOP ticket.

“Where we lose is where we link Obamacare to the CR,” McHenry says, referring to the continuing resolution battle Congress is embroiled in.

Independents won’t go for a government shutdown even if it would stop Obamacare in its tracks, he explains.

“It jeopardizes Republicans maintaining control of the House and even gaining control of the Senate, which they are in a position to do in 2014,” McHenry says.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Health Care, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate

Jon McHenry, September 2

September 2, 2013 by North Star

Jon McHenry’s comments in the Washington Times regarding President Obama and the budget:

“Has he been trying to sell his budget priorities?” asked Republican pollster Jon McHenry, vice president of North Star Strategies. “I’m sure there are some folks in upstate New York who appreciate that he’s been out on the hustings. But there’s so much attention on Obamacare, defunding it or delaying it, and Syria on the other side, that I don’t know if anybody is getting any sense of his budget priorities.”

…

The collapse of talks raised concerns that Washington could be headed for a government shutdown. Mr. McHenry said his polling suggests that would be a mistake for the GOP.
“What we’re seeing in our polling and in the public polling is that Republicans are in fantastic shape when they’re talking about Obamacare, and that includes with independents, right up until the point where you start talking about the government,” he said. “At that point, it becomes more of an ideological issue where you start to lose some independents, and some Republicans, too.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, Health Care, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate

Dan Judy, August 8

August 8, 2013 by North Star

Dan Judy’s comments on ObamaCare for US News and World Report:

Republican pollster Dan Judy said while the idea may appear overwhelmingly popular among the loudest tea party voices at town halls, only half of Republicans support it and nationally it is an election loser.

“It is short-sighted to divide our base and send independents into the arms of Democrats over this shutdown issue,” Judy says.

For the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Featured, Health Care, In the News Sidebar, Independent Voters, News Clips, Political Climate