News Clips

Reporters and analysts rely on the expertise and comments of team members at North Star Opinion Research to give their stories depth and strategic perspective.  Read clips from recent articles on pressing political news.


Dan Judy, November 7

Dan Judy’s comments to CNBC on the “Kavanaugh effect” in the midterm elections:

Dan Judy, Republican pollster and vice president at North Star Opinion, said, “The fight over Justice Kavanaugh brought the stakes of this election into stark relief, and helped get Republicans motivated behind Senate candidates in ways they weren’t before.”

Judy added that “opposing Kavanaugh exposed a number of Democrats who were claiming centrist records in very conservative states.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, November 4

Whit Ayres’ comment in The New York Times on President Trump’s appeal to base voters in the midterm elections:

Mr. Trump, who promised after his victory in 2016 to be a president for “all Americans,” has been fixated this year on visiting states that were critical to his Electoral College win and doubling down on nurturing his homogeneous base in those places. Many Republicans privately worry that in terms of the future health of their party, the outreach and agenda they are pursuing feels a lot like the president’s travel footprint: provincial and small.

“No one has repealed the long-term demographic trends in the country,” said Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster. “At some point, Republicans are going to have to reach out beyond the base if they hope to win a majority of the popular vote in the future.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, November 1

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic on President Trump’s focus during the midterms:

Trump’s closing emphasis on culture may, in fact, represent a kind of triage for the GOP that effectively concedes large suburban losses in the House, but tries to protect more rural and blue-collar districts, as well as GOP Senate candidates in states fitting the latter description. “That’s not an unreasonable interpretation of it,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. Trump’s cultural messaging, he added, “may help in some rural blue-collar districts, but it sure doesn’t help in the suburban districts that are so important to help keep the House.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, October 4

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times regarding partisan views of the Kavanaugh hearings:

“Like so many events today, people view this through their partisan filters to reinforce what they already think,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “The main difference we’ve seen since the Kavanaugh hearings is an increase in Republican enthusiasm. It doesn’t quite match the sky-high Democratic enthusiasm, but they have helped to close the gap in intensity.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, October 3

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding diversity among GOP nominees and office holders:

Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster who wrote a book called “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in a New America,” said that while the party could benefit from more minority candidates, this election cycle could also just be an anomaly. Mr. Ayres, who worked with Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s failed presidential campaign in 2016, pointed to several minority Republicans who are currently in prominent offices, such as South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and Ms. Haley, who stepped down as governor of South Carolina to become Mr. Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.

“We have many candidates both in Texas and Florida, like Marco Rubio, who have won a majority of the Hispanic vote in their campaign,” Mr. Ayres said. “So it’s perfectly possible for Republican candidates, without in any way moderating their fundamental principles, to succeed in the Hispanic community. But you have to try.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, September 28

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Los Angeles Times on the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

“It’s depressing watching this because both of these people have been seriously and permanently damaged,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who has worked with one of the main conservative groups backing Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

“It reminds me of a Shakespearean tragedy, where everybody dies in the end.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, September 24

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press on the Tennessee Senate contest:

“A lot of conservatives in Tennessee really like Phil Bredesen and really don’t want (New York Democratic Sen.) Chuck Schumer to be majority leader,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “How they wrestle with that tension likely determines the outcome of the Senate race.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 31

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Hill regarding strong economic growth and the midterm elections:

GOP strategist Whit Ayres highlighted the most recent, bullish data on employment and economic growth and praised Trump for having sought to make the most of that news.

“It would be helpful if the president continues to pound that message, and it would make it far easier for down-ballot Republicans to win reelection or for candidates for open seats to win election,” Ayres said.

“We have a very good story to tell, but it is difficult to tell that story if it is constantly obscured by the latest controversy,” he continued.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 27

Whit Ayres’s comments to the Associated Press on President Trump, presidential job approval, and the midterm elections:

“Donald Trump is a non-traditional president and he has severed the traditional tie between economic well-being and presidential job approval,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant and pollster.

“People are not evaluating Donald Trump based on the state of the economy,” he added. “They’re evaluating him based on his conduct and behavior in office. It appeals to Republicans and doesn’t appeal to independents and Democrats. And no change in the economy will alter his job approval so long as that relationship changes.”

The president’s approval rating is of significant concern to his party: Largely because of Trump, Republicans face even more threatening political headwinds than is typical for the party in power as they head into November’s midterm elections.
For nearly his entire presidency, Trump’s approval rating hasn’t fluctuated much outside a six-point range between 38 percent and 44 percent. It was 41 percent on Friday, according to the average of polling data by FiveThirtyEight, a web site of statistical analyses, as the president stood on the South Lawn and credited Republicans’ tax cuts and his regulatory rollbacks and tariffs for “an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”

“If he did a lot more of what he did this morning in touting the strong economy, it would make it easier for Republican down-ballot candidates to win re-election or to be elected to open seats,” Ayres said. “There is a very good story to tell. But it’s hard to tell that story if the news is being drowned out by the latest controversy.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 28

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Washington Post regarding the Georgia gubernatorial contest:

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, noted that while the Atlanta suburbs are not as conservative as the rest of the state, they are more conservative than the precincts in Northern Virginia that are becoming Democratic strongholds. A Democrat who was senior in Clinton’s campaign also expressed skepticism that Georgia is as ripe for the Democrats as some others want to believe.

Ayres also pointed to another difference: “Brian Kemp is not Roy Moore. Stacey Abrams is not Ralph Northam.” By that he meant that Kemp carries none of the baggage of Moore, who was accused of molesting a young woman many years ago, and that Abrams is considerably more liberal than Northam.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 27

Whit Ayres’s comments to McClatchy news service on the Trump effect in Republican primaries:

When it comes to moving Republican votes, said veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres, a Trump endorsement is “determinative.”

“At this point,” he said, ticking through a number of primary contest results, “a Trump endorsement can totally change the complexion of a race.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 22

Whit Ayres’s comments to NBC Los Angeles on fallout from the Russia summit:

Yes, each time Trump has weathered the criticism. Will it be any different now?

“The only honest answer to that question is ‘Who knows?’” said Whit Ayres, the president North Star Opinion Research and an adviser to top Republicans. “Past controversies that would have sunk most presidents have had no significant effect on this president’s job approval. So until there is hard evidence to the contrary, the safest bet is that this will have no effect as well.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 19

Whit Ayres’s comments to Bloomberg on Republican reaction to President Trump’s remarks on Russia:

Republican strategist and pollster Whit Ayres said he wasn’t sure how the politics of Trump’s remarks would play out. “Based upon the job approval numbers thus far, Trump supporters are predisposed to believe what President Trump says.”

Siding with the president is an “easy call” for Republican candidates in states and districts where Trump enjoys majority approval, he said. But Democrats are making a play for control of the House by defeating Republicans in areas that are more closely divided.

“The challenge comes in states and districts where the Republican candidate needs all of the Trump voters plus a significant proportion of the people who do not approve of the president’s job performance.” Ayres said. “That becomes very tricky.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 28

Whit Ayres’ comments in USA Today regarding the political impact of Justice Kennedy’s retirement:

Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP pollster, said quickly confirming a new justice before the Nov. 6 midterms could prove crucial to Senate Republicans.

“It will make even more compelling the Republican argument that they have delivered on their promises and future control of the Senate is critical to accomplish conservative goals,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 23

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding President Trump’s approach on trade and immigration:

That means most of the midterm action is taking place in contested, Republican-held House districts and a couple of swing states, such as Florida and Nevada, where Trump’s rhetoric has wedged members of his party into a most uncomfortable position — between his own high popularity among Republicans on one hand and swing voters opposed to his bellicosity on trade and immigration on the other.

“It probably helps Republicans running against Senate incumbents in the deepest red states but makes life more challenging for Republican incumbents in more-diverse suburban districts,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 19

Whit Ayres’ comments on the Trump Administration border detention policy was cited as The New York Times‘ Quote of the Day:

“Somehow I don’t think that putting kids in cages is likely to go over very well with suburban moms,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster uneasy about running on the culture wars. Mr. Ayres said his party should campaign on “the concrete accomplishments of a Republican-held government.”

“A fabulously strong economy, a record stock market, ISIS defeated and a world without any major wars that are killing lots of Americans on a weekly basis,” he said, laying out the case.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, May 10

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding the public’s focus — or lack thereof — on scandals:

“The proof is in the pudding,” said Republican pollster Whit ­Ayres. But, he added, “we know that most Americans simply do not care about so much of the drama that consumes the Beltway. It’s all a matter of what results are produced.”

To read the full article, please click here.

North Star Wins for Role in AAPC Campaign of the Year

NASHVILLE, TN – APRIL 13: Awards Presentation during the Best of Pollie Contest & Campaign Excellence Awards on April 13, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Jason Davis/Getty Images)

North Star Opinion Research is proud to be honored for its part in the Karen Handel for Congress campaign, recognized as the 2017 American Association of Political Consultants Campaign of the Year.

North Star provided the polling services on a team with general and media consulting from Rob Simms and Mike Shields of Convergence Media, mail consulting from Ron Butler of Creative Media, and campaign management from Micah Yousefi of Winning for Women. It was an honor to work alongside that team on behalf of a candidate who had long before established herself as a servant of the district and state, starting with her chairing the Fulton County Commission and continuing with her service as Secretary of State. We have had the honor of working with Congresswoman Handel throughout her career, starting with her first campaign in 2002.

Whit Ayres and Mike Shields accepted the award on behalf of the team from Art Hackney for the AAPC.

Whit Ayres, April 11

Whit Ayres’ comments for Frontline on the role partisanship in defending a sitting president:

Political scientists said that limited criticism is normal from a president’s own party. Some made parallels to the debate among Republicans over whether to defend President Ronald Reagan following the Iran-Contra scandal. Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant, noted that Democrats in Congress stood by President Bill Clinton during his own controversies.

“Democrats during the Clinton impeachment rallied around Bill Clinton, defended him resolutely and defended his conduct and behavior or at least minimized his conduct and behavior,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, February 22

Whit Ayres’ comments about President Trump and the Republican party were prominently featured in Newsweek, including this observation:

“Virtually every president’s job approval has been driven by the state of the economy,” Ayres points out, but Trump “has severed the traditional link between presidential job approval and economic well-being.” That lends some credence to the president’s argument that he doesn’t get sufficient credit for the economy, though he may be the one who prevents that credit from being tendered. Trump “keeps distracting people from all the good news with his various tweets and conflicts and battles,” Ayres says. “President Trump’s job approval is being driven by his conduct and behavior in office.”

For the full article and additional quotations, please click here.

Whit Ayres, February 1

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post on Nancy Pelosi’s dismissal of tax reform benefits:

Even many Democrats cringed privately at her “crumbs” comment, which they worry distracts from their larger argument over the fairness of GOP economic policies. And of course, any metaphor that involves baked goods easily lends itself to the Marie Antoinette caricature that Republicans have drawn of Pelosi.

“It sounds like something a wealthy woman from San Francisco would say,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, January 29

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Daily Caller on Republican electoral prospects in the face of changing demographics:

Republican pollster Whit Ayres points out that President Bush got 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, including a majority of Sunbelt Hispanics. “It’s no coincidence that he was the last Republican nominee for president to win a majority of the vote (in 2004),” Ayers says. “The changing demographics of the country demand Republicans do better with Hispanics if they hope to win nationally. The numbers are the numbers.”

Trump won the presidency with 46.2 percent of the vote, less than the 47.2 percent Mitt Romney got in 2012, when he lost the presidency.

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, January 26

Jon McHenry’s comments to The World Weekly on the economy and Republican prospects in the fall:

Republican leaders plan to campaign on economic successes. The US economy has surged in recent months, with GDP up 3.2% in the third quarter of 2017 and unemployment down to 4.1%. Messaging will particularly focus on the Republican tax plan, stressing the tax cuts for the middle class set to start next month – one Republican dubbed it the “Great American Comeback.” “While many Republican accomplishments appeal to the conservative base, more money in people’s pockets appeals to everyone,” says Jon McHenry, Republican pollster, to TWW.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, January 18

Whit Ayres’ quote in The New York Times regarding the state of play in the 2018 Senate map:

“The Democrats running in the 10 states that Donald Trump carried have all demonstrated an ability to get elected in Republican states, so they obviously have something going for them,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist. “But having the Democratic Party veer further and further to the left makes their lives substantially more difficult.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, December 22, NPR

Whit Ayres appeared on NPR’s All Things Considered to discuss President Trump’s job approval:

To read the transcript, please click here.

Whit Ayres, December 21

Whit Ayres’ comments in Bloomberg Businessweek regarding the competitive Senate environment in 2018:

Whit Ayres, a GOP strategist advising Senate and House candidates next year, admits Republicans are going to have “the wind in their face,” but he points out that, given the 26 seats Senate Democrats will have to keep, the GOP has been “blessed with an extraordinarily favorable map in 2018.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, December 16

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press on the effect of tax reform on Republicans’ electoral prospects in 2018:

“Passing the tax bill is necessary but not sufficient for Republicans to retain control of Congress in 2018,” said GOP consultant Whit Ayres. “It does give the party a concrete accomplishment that they can take to the voters, and that’s critical.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, December 15

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding Senator Rubio’s efforts to expand the Child Tax Credit in the Republican tax reform bill:

“He is not ‘all of a sudden, at the last minute’ grandstanding,” said Whit Ayres, Mr. Rubio’s pollster. “This is a consistent cause of his, going back to the presidential campaign and before.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, December 14

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal regarding the Alabama special election and what it means for next year’s midterm elections:

“Obviously, the primary responsibility lies with a deeply flawed Republican candidate,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

But he said results in Alabama—and in Virginia’s race for governor, which Democrats won—also showed that some voters were turning against the GOP under President Donald Trump’s leadership, ”particularly college-educated, suburban women.”

That trend carries “troubling implications” for the GOP in next year’s elections, he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, December 12

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Christian Science Monitor on Alabama’s unique political views and senate race:

“Alabama’s always had a fiercely independent streak,” explains GOP pollster and consultant Whit Ayres. “George Wallace came from Alabama, and stood in the schoolhouse door to tell the federal government to get lost,” says Mr. Ayres, referring to the Democratic governor of Alabama who opposed integration in the turbulent 1960s, when the state was ground zero for the civil rights movement.

To read the full article, please click here.