Dan Judy, June 20

Dan Judy’s comments on variables affecting the President’s reelection chances on the ABC News website:

Greece, of course, is also a huge variable. Even after its recent election, surprises from the new Greek leaders could ripple across the ocean. Obama has often cited the uncertainty in Europe — along with the tsunami in Japan — as factors out of his control that affect the U.S. economy. That won’t change the reality that’s felt, however, if the economy dips back into a recession.

“They’ve been trying to do this for a while, saying, ‘Listen, a lot of this isn’t my fault. I can’t control Europe; I can’t control Greece. I can’t control the global market for gas prices,'” Dan Judy, a Republican strategist, said of the Obama campaign. “And of course, all that’s true. And of course, it doesn’t matter.”

“If there’s another recession in two or three months, he will carry the blame for that, whether he’s directly to blame for that or not,” Judy said. “People are already very, very nervous about the state of the economy.”

The most unpredictable of events could be the most unlikely, but also the most dangerous for Obama politically.

The 9/11 attacks initially caused Americans to stand behind George W. Bush, bringing about a sense of unity. If another attack were to happen before the election, while some Republican critics might argue that Obama didn’t protect the country, it’s more likely that people will come together as they did in 2001, Judy said.

“I don’t think you’re going to hear any serious Republican using that opportunity to attack Obama,” he said. “If it’s something on a huge scale, people are going to rally around the president.”

A natural disaster, though, could be more delicate. “It’s the response to things like that that make or break careers,” Judy said.

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