Whit Ayres, December 7

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Hill regarding the 2020 electoral environment:

“The 2018 Senate map was the most favorable map for Republicans in our lifetime, so by comparison any other map is going to be more competitive,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

But Ayres warned that it’s far too early to predict the political environment leading up to Election Day 2020.

“It’s exceedingly difficult for me to get any sense of what 2020 will be like until we know two things: what’s in the Mueller report and who the Democrats are going to nominate,” Ayres said, referring to special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.

“If they nominate some far-left-wing whack job that is unacceptable to the broad middle of America, then you have a very different dynamic than if they nominate someone who is within shouting distance of the political center,” he said.

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Dan Judy, November 7

Dan Judy’s comments to CNBC on the “Kavanaugh effect” in the midterm elections:

Dan Judy, Republican pollster and vice president at North Star Opinion, said, “The fight over Justice Kavanaugh brought the stakes of this election into stark relief, and helped get Republicans motivated behind Senate candidates in ways they weren’t before.”

Judy added that “opposing Kavanaugh exposed a number of Democrats who were claiming centrist records in very conservative states.”

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Whit Ayres, November 4

Whit Ayres’ comment in The New York Times on President Trump’s appeal to base voters in the midterm elections:

Mr. Trump, who promised after his victory in 2016 to be a president for “all Americans,” has been fixated this year on visiting states that were critical to his Electoral College win and doubling down on nurturing his homogeneous base in those places. Many Republicans privately worry that in terms of the future health of their party, the outreach and agenda they are pursuing feels a lot like the president’s travel footprint: provincial and small.

“No one has repealed the long-term demographic trends in the country,” said Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster. “At some point, Republicans are going to have to reach out beyond the base if they hope to win a majority of the popular vote in the future.”

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Whit Ayres, November 1

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic on President Trump’s focus during the midterms:

Trump’s closing emphasis on culture may, in fact, represent a kind of triage for the GOP that effectively concedes large suburban losses in the House, but tries to protect more rural and blue-collar districts, as well as GOP Senate candidates in states fitting the latter description. “That’s not an unreasonable interpretation of it,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said. Trump’s cultural messaging, he added, “may help in some rural blue-collar districts, but it sure doesn’t help in the suburban districts that are so important to help keep the House.”

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Whit Ayres, October 4

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times regarding partisan views of the Kavanaugh hearings:

“Like so many events today, people view this through their partisan filters to reinforce what they already think,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “The main difference we’ve seen since the Kavanaugh hearings is an increase in Republican enthusiasm. It doesn’t quite match the sky-high Democratic enthusiasm, but they have helped to close the gap in intensity.”

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Whit Ayres, October 3

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding diversity among GOP nominees and office holders:

Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster who wrote a book called “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in a New America,” said that while the party could benefit from more minority candidates, this election cycle could also just be an anomaly. Mr. Ayres, who worked with Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s failed presidential campaign in 2016, pointed to several minority Republicans who are currently in prominent offices, such as South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and Ms. Haley, who stepped down as governor of South Carolina to become Mr. Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.

“We have many candidates both in Texas and Florida, like Marco Rubio, who have won a majority of the Hispanic vote in their campaign,” Mr. Ayres said. “So it’s perfectly possible for Republican candidates, without in any way moderating their fundamental principles, to succeed in the Hispanic community. But you have to try.”

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Whit Ayres, September 28

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Los Angeles Times on the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

“It’s depressing watching this because both of these people have been seriously and permanently damaged,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who has worked with one of the main conservative groups backing Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

“It reminds me of a Shakespearean tragedy, where everybody dies in the end.”

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Whit Ayres, September 24

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press on the Tennessee Senate contest:

“A lot of conservatives in Tennessee really like Phil Bredesen and really don’t want (New York Democratic Sen.) Chuck Schumer to be majority leader,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “How they wrestle with that tension likely determines the outcome of the Senate race.”

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Whit Ayres, July 31

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Hill regarding strong economic growth and the midterm elections:

GOP strategist Whit Ayres highlighted the most recent, bullish data on employment and economic growth and praised Trump for having sought to make the most of that news.

“It would be helpful if the president continues to pound that message, and it would make it far easier for down-ballot Republicans to win reelection or for candidates for open seats to win election,” Ayres said.

“We have a very good story to tell, but it is difficult to tell that story if it is constantly obscured by the latest controversy,” he continued.

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Whit Ayres, July 27

Whit Ayres’s comments to the Associated Press on President Trump, presidential job approval, and the midterm elections:

“Donald Trump is a non-traditional president and he has severed the traditional tie between economic well-being and presidential job approval,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant and pollster.

“People are not evaluating Donald Trump based on the state of the economy,” he added. “They’re evaluating him based on his conduct and behavior in office. It appeals to Republicans and doesn’t appeal to independents and Democrats. And no change in the economy will alter his job approval so long as that relationship changes.”

The president’s approval rating is of significant concern to his party: Largely because of Trump, Republicans face even more threatening political headwinds than is typical for the party in power as they head into November’s midterm elections.
For nearly his entire presidency, Trump’s approval rating hasn’t fluctuated much outside a six-point range between 38 percent and 44 percent. It was 41 percent on Friday, according to the average of polling data by FiveThirtyEight, a web site of statistical analyses, as the president stood on the South Lawn and credited Republicans’ tax cuts and his regulatory rollbacks and tariffs for “an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”

“If he did a lot more of what he did this morning in touting the strong economy, it would make it easier for Republican down-ballot candidates to win re-election or to be elected to open seats,” Ayres said. “There is a very good story to tell. But it’s hard to tell that story if the news is being drowned out by the latest controversy.”

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