Whit Ayres, August 11

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Philadelphia Inquirer regarding campaigning with significant mail-in balloting:

Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist who has worked on many races in Florida, where mail voting is prevalent, said it “complicates life enormously” for campaigns, “because you need to start advertising earlier, start getting out the vote earlier, but then you need to extend those efforts all the way up through Election Day.”


But other Republicans worry that Trump’s diatribes could hamper GOP turnout.

“It’s a concern that trashing the idea of mail voting is going to suppress Republican votes,” Ayres said. “Republicans could be leaving a whole lot of votes on the table if they discourage their own supporters from voting by mail.”

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Whit Ayres, August 11

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding politics and the pandemic:

“The pandemic obviously changes the way politics will be conducted in a dramatic fashion. But beyond that, the pandemic heightens the importance of the election,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “In many ways, the pandemic has proven to the country that politics really matters and who gets elected really matters in ways that few other events of our lifetimes have done.”

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Whit Ayres, August 8

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Hill on legislation to address the coronavirus:

But strategists warn that taking too tough a line in the negotiations could backfire for both sides.

“The most important thing is to get a package passed — period. That’s far more important than the details of what’s in it for most voters,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

“Who knows how much more time we have with this virus? But if you look at the 1918 flu pandemic as an example, we may not even be halfway through it at this point,” he added. “In an emergency, you spend what you need to try to address the problem and then figure out how to pay for it later.”

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Whit Ayres, July 17

Whit Ayres’ comments to National Public Radio regarding Republicans and demographic changes:

The party is indeed in danger of losing power as a consequence of not having followed the autopsy’s recommendations, according to Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

“For the most part, the Republican Party has done the opposite of what was recommended in the 2013 autopsy,” he said. “That’s part of the reason why so many rapidly changing demographic states are now in play for the Democrats that used to be solidly Republican — states like Arizona and Texas and Georgia and North Carolina.”

Trump found short-term success, he says, but at a cost, as America’s electorate grows more diverse with every passing year.

“For the Republican Party to be successful in the long run. It’s going to have to adapt to a changing America, not react against it,” he added.

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Whit Ayres, July 15

Whit Ayres’ comments in USA Today about the Trump campaign’s television buying strategy:

Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist who has worked for Sens. Marco Rubio, Lamar Alexander and Lindsey Graham, said the Trump campaign’s decision to make early television pushes in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio was “smart” and reflects that more states are up for grabs than 2016.

“We have a lot more states that are in play today because Republicans have become significantly weaker in suburban areas at the same time they’ve become stronger in rural areas. And because of demographic changes that are occurring throughout the Sun Belt that have been ongoing for some years,” Ayres said, referring to Georgia and Texas.

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Whit Ayres, July 10

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding tone and the 2020 election:

Yet this week, in interview after interview, suburbanites described Mr. Trump as a polarizing and deeply flawed messenger on the most searing issue of the day. “College-educated suburban women do not want to support someone who is perceived to be intolerant on racial issues,” said Whit Ayres, the veteran Republican pollster. “That has been true for many years, and is particularly true now, after the George Floyd killing.”

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Jon McHenry, July 9

Jon McHenry’s comments to National Public Radio on the likelihood of Republican defections in this year’s presidential contest:

Polling has shown that the vast majority of Republicans intend to vote for Trump’s reelection. Conservative opposition appears to be a sliver of the overall electorate.

“It’s very small,” said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research who’s skeptical that these GOP-for-Biden groups will influence Republicans. “You’re not gonna knock President Trump from say 95% of Republicans down to 85% of Republicans on the basis of some ads from former staffers in a previous administration.”

McHenry added: “It would be probably more persuasive to Republicans if it were current officeholders that were taking this stand.”

In other words, [Julie] Azari said, the reason Trump appears so popular with the GOP is because some would-be Republicans no longer identify as Republican. In the past half-century, no Democratic presidential candidate has won white voters with a college degree; those voters have comprised a loyal GOP voting bloc. But in the past few years, they’ve begun moving away from the party.

“There’s a decent chunk of those white college-educated voters who support [GOP] policies, they support the tax cuts, but you know, they wouldn’t be crazy about President Trump demanding an apology from Bubba Wallace this week,” said McHenry, referring to the Black NASCAR driver Trump singled out on Twitter.

McHenry said if the presidential campaign eventually shifts into more policy debates, those white college-educated voters will be forced to make a choice between policy and tone. And it’s possible policy will win out.

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Whit Ayres, July 4

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding growing the Republican coalition:

“The president’s base is locked in. They love him, they’re going to turn out and they’re going to vote for him,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. “The problem is that the base is not enough to win. You can make a case that protecting Confederate monuments is very popular among at least a portion of his base, but it does nothing to expand the coalition, and that’s the imperative at the moment and will be going forward if the party hopes to govern.”

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Outlook for the 2020 Elections

Dan Judy, June 30

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill regarding the Republican Party, President Trump, and race:

Another Republican strategist, Dan Judy, noted that there were real implications for Trump, and to some extent the broader GOP, with key voting blocs.

Racially charged rhetoric from the president, Judy said, “hurts [the GOP] among key constituencies that it desperately needs: suburban voters — and white suburban women, to be very specific. It also energizes nonwhite voters against the president. So it is potentially a double whammy at the presidential level.”

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