Whit Ayres, October 4

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Los Angeles Times regarding partisan views of the Kavanaugh hearings:

“Like so many events today, people view this through their partisan filters to reinforce what they already think,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “The main difference we’ve seen since the Kavanaugh hearings is an increase in Republican enthusiasm. It doesn’t quite match the sky-high Democratic enthusiasm, but they have helped to close the gap in intensity.”

To read the full article, please click here.

How to Talk About the Mueller Investigation

Republican candidates in deeply red states and districts who can win elections with only Republican votes can adopt Donald Trump’s perspective on the Mueller investigation. But Republican candidates who need both Republican and Independent votes to win can appeal to both groups with the following arguments:

• Nobody is above the law, not even the President.

• The Mueller investigation should follow the facts wherever they lead.

• Donald Trump should not shut down the Mueller investigation, because doing so would make him look like he is guilty of wrongdoing and has something to hide.

To read the full memo, please see below.

Mueller Messaging Memo

Whit Ayres, July 31

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Hill regarding strong economic growth and the midterm elections:

GOP strategist Whit Ayres highlighted the most recent, bullish data on employment and economic growth and praised Trump for having sought to make the most of that news.

“It would be helpful if the president continues to pound that message, and it would make it far easier for down-ballot Republicans to win reelection or for candidates for open seats to win election,” Ayres said.

“We have a very good story to tell, but it is difficult to tell that story if it is constantly obscured by the latest controversy,” he continued.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 27

Whit Ayres’s comments to the Associated Press on President Trump, presidential job approval, and the midterm elections:

“Donald Trump is a non-traditional president and he has severed the traditional tie between economic well-being and presidential job approval,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant and pollster.

“People are not evaluating Donald Trump based on the state of the economy,” he added. “They’re evaluating him based on his conduct and behavior in office. It appeals to Republicans and doesn’t appeal to independents and Democrats. And no change in the economy will alter his job approval so long as that relationship changes.”

The president’s approval rating is of significant concern to his party: Largely because of Trump, Republicans face even more threatening political headwinds than is typical for the party in power as they head into November’s midterm elections.
For nearly his entire presidency, Trump’s approval rating hasn’t fluctuated much outside a six-point range between 38 percent and 44 percent. It was 41 percent on Friday, according to the average of polling data by FiveThirtyEight, a web site of statistical analyses, as the president stood on the South Lawn and credited Republicans’ tax cuts and his regulatory rollbacks and tariffs for “an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”

“If he did a lot more of what he did this morning in touting the strong economy, it would make it easier for Republican down-ballot candidates to win re-election or to be elected to open seats,” Ayres said. “There is a very good story to tell. But it’s hard to tell that story if the news is being drowned out by the latest controversy.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 27

Whit Ayres’s comments to McClatchy news service on the Trump effect in Republican primaries:

When it comes to moving Republican votes, said veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres, a Trump endorsement is “determinative.”

“At this point,” he said, ticking through a number of primary contest results, “a Trump endorsement can totally change the complexion of a race.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 23

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding President Trump’s approach on trade and immigration:

That means most of the midterm action is taking place in contested, Republican-held House districts and a couple of swing states, such as Florida and Nevada, where Trump’s rhetoric has wedged members of his party into a most uncomfortable position — between his own high popularity among Republicans on one hand and swing voters opposed to his bellicosity on trade and immigration on the other.

“It probably helps Republicans running against Senate incumbents in the deepest red states but makes life more challenging for Republican incumbents in more-diverse suburban districts,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 19

Whit Ayres’ comments on the Trump Administration border detention policy was cited as The New York Times‘ Quote of the Day:

“Somehow I don’t think that putting kids in cages is likely to go over very well with suburban moms,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster uneasy about running on the culture wars. Mr. Ayres said his party should campaign on “the concrete accomplishments of a Republican-held government.”

“A fabulously strong economy, a record stock market, ISIS defeated and a world without any major wars that are killing lots of Americans on a weekly basis,” he said, laying out the case.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, April 11

Whit Ayres’ comments for Frontline on the role partisanship in defending a sitting president:

Political scientists said that limited criticism is normal from a president’s own party. Some made parallels to the debate among Republicans over whether to defend President Ronald Reagan following the Iran-Contra scandal. Whit Ayres, a Republican political consultant, noted that Democrats in Congress stood by President Bill Clinton during his own controversies.

“Democrats during the Clinton impeachment rallied around Bill Clinton, defended him resolutely and defended his conduct and behavior or at least minimized his conduct and behavior,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, February 22

Whit Ayres’ comments about President Trump and the Republican party were prominently featured in Newsweek, including this observation:

“Virtually every president’s job approval has been driven by the state of the economy,” Ayres points out, but Trump “has severed the traditional link between presidential job approval and economic well-being.” That lends some credence to the president’s argument that he doesn’t get sufficient credit for the economy, though he may be the one who prevents that credit from being tendered. Trump “keeps distracting people from all the good news with his various tweets and conflicts and battles,” Ayres says. “President Trump’s job approval is being driven by his conduct and behavior in office.”

For the full article and additional quotations, please click here.

Whit Ayres, January 29

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Daily Caller on Republican electoral prospects in the face of changing demographics:

Republican pollster Whit Ayres points out that President Bush got 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, including a majority of Sunbelt Hispanics. “It’s no coincidence that he was the last Republican nominee for president to win a majority of the vote (in 2004),” Ayers says. “The changing demographics of the country demand Republicans do better with Hispanics if they hope to win nationally. The numbers are the numbers.”

Trump won the presidency with 46.2 percent of the vote, less than the 47.2 percent Mitt Romney got in 2012, when he lost the presidency.

To read the full article, please click here.