Whit Ayres, September 16

Whit Ayres’ comments in the New Statesman about changing demographics and their electoral impact in Arizona and Texas:

“The narrative [that the states will swing this year] persists because of the constantly changing demographics of the Sun Belt,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster at North Star Opinion Research. In particular, as Ben Walker wrote elsewhere in the New Statesman, Hispanic voters are growing in number, especially in Arizona and Texas.

Arizona and Texas are “at different stages of their evolution”, Ayres said. Arizona is much further along than Texas. In Arizona, Democrats could pick up another Senate seat (one Arizona Senate seat is already held by a Democrat) and “maybe even [carry] the state at the presidential level”.

Texas, he said, is a cycle or two away from going Democratic, “but given the massive uncertainty created by the pandemic, nothing would surprise me in electoral outcomes” in the state.

“The fact that we are even talking about Arizona, Texas… possibly going Democratic really demonstrates the impact of demographic change,” Ayres added, “and increases exponentially the importance for Republicans of reaching out aggressively to new non-white voters.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Outlook for 2020 Elections

Jon McHenry, September 9

Jon McHenry’s comments to STAT News regarding health care and the Kansas Senate race:

“Barbara Bollier could be in the right position for Kansas on surprise billing, but it’s likely to get drowned out by her abortion position,” said Jon McHenry, a pollster for the GOP-aligned group North Star Opinion Research. “Similarly, ACA repeal may not be decisive here if the conversation skews to other issues.”

Despite voters’ broad coronavirus anxiety, Bollier could still face difficulty incorporating the country’s pandemic struggles into her broader health care message, given Republicans’ large advantage in voter registration.

“Often 80% or more of Democrats will say they are very concerned about the effect of the pandemic, but that will drop to 50% to 60% among independents, and maybe 25% to 45% among Republicans,” said McHenry, the Republican-aligned pollster. “For some Republicans and independents, it’s more of a government control and economic issue than a ‘health care issue.’”

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, September 9

Jon McHenry’s comments in POLITICO regarding a vote to legalize marijuana at the federal level:

But some pollsters say the House vote could muddle the party’s message with just weeks to go before Election Day, especially considering that Biden isn’t on board with blanket marijuana legalization.

“You’re harming your ability to defeat Donald Trump,” argued Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research. “He and his Republican allies get to say, ‘See, Joe Biden’s not going to be in control. Nancy Pelosi and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez are in control.’”

To read the full article, please click here.

Jon McHenry, August 27

Jon McHenry joined Episode Four of ITV’s “Will Trump Win?” podcast to talk about the election (and just a little about Liverpool):

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-08-06/will-trump-win-podcast-join-us-every-week-for-insight-and-exclusive-interviews-on-donald-trumps-battle-with-joe-biden

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/episode-4-shock-method-in-rnc-madness-how-coronavirus/id1525264693?i=1000489210294

Whit Ayres, August 24

Whit Ayres’ comments in Politico comparing the 2020 and 1980 elections:

“This election feels to me a lot like 1980,” said Whit Ayres, one of the country’s best Republican pollsters. “We had the Iranian hostage crisis, double digit inflation and unemployment. It just felt like events were spinning out of control and the president had little ability to effect positive outcomes.”

Ayres added, “There were doubts about whether Reagan was a credible alternative. They had one debate and Reagan came across as credible—and the dam broke. There are similar doubts about Joe Biden now; not his experience, but his ability to do the job. Can he persuade voters that he is up to the challenge?”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, August 11

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Philadelphia Inquirer regarding campaigning with significant mail-in balloting:

Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist who has worked on many races in Florida, where mail voting is prevalent, said it “complicates life enormously” for campaigns, “because you need to start advertising earlier, start getting out the vote earlier, but then you need to extend those efforts all the way up through Election Day.”


But other Republicans worry that Trump’s diatribes could hamper GOP turnout.

“It’s a concern that trashing the idea of mail voting is going to suppress Republican votes,” Ayres said. “Republicans could be leaving a whole lot of votes on the table if they discourage their own supporters from voting by mail.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, August 11

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding politics and the pandemic:

“The pandemic obviously changes the way politics will be conducted in a dramatic fashion. But beyond that, the pandemic heightens the importance of the election,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “In many ways, the pandemic has proven to the country that politics really matters and who gets elected really matters in ways that few other events of our lifetimes have done.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, August 8

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Hill on legislation to address the coronavirus:

But strategists warn that taking too tough a line in the negotiations could backfire for both sides.

“The most important thing is to get a package passed — period. That’s far more important than the details of what’s in it for most voters,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

“Who knows how much more time we have with this virus? But if you look at the 1918 flu pandemic as an example, we may not even be halfway through it at this point,” he added. “In an emergency, you spend what you need to try to address the problem and then figure out how to pay for it later.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 17

Whit Ayres’ comments to National Public Radio regarding Republicans and demographic changes:

The party is indeed in danger of losing power as a consequence of not having followed the autopsy’s recommendations, according to Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

“For the most part, the Republican Party has done the opposite of what was recommended in the 2013 autopsy,” he said. “That’s part of the reason why so many rapidly changing demographic states are now in play for the Democrats that used to be solidly Republican — states like Arizona and Texas and Georgia and North Carolina.”

Trump found short-term success, he says, but at a cost, as America’s electorate grows more diverse with every passing year.

“For the Republican Party to be successful in the long run. It’s going to have to adapt to a changing America, not react against it,” he added.

To read the full article, please click here.