Dan Judy, July 18

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill on the unpredictable nature of a Trump-led convention:

Dan Judy, a GOP strategist who worked on the campaign of one of Trump’s most serious primary rivals, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), said that he was “concerned” about the convention’s organization.

“The [Republican] Party professionals who are working on it are going to do a fantastic job,” Judy said. “But any problems will come from the candidate, who has proved himself to be undisciplined and freewheeling. … What you worry about with Trump is that every time he comes out, you have the equivalent of Clint Eastwood talking to a chair.”

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Whit Ayres, July 18

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times on Senators running for reelection in the days of Trump:

“Localize, localize, localize,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, offering the mantra of endangered Senate incumbents on the ballot with Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump’s divisiveness could bring back ticket splitting, Republican strategists said. “We’re starting to see hints of the largest amounts of split-ticket voting since the 1980s,” Mr. Ayres said.

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Whit Ayres, July 8

Whit Ayres’ comments in US News and World Report on Donald Trump’s effect on downballot races and the future of the Republican party:

For the moment that’s raising the prospect of resurgence in a fading voting pattern: “Just because people haven’t split their tickets in recent elections doesn’t mean they can’t spit their tickets,” says Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP pollster who also wrote a book, “2016 and Beyond” on how the GOP can regain the White House. “We are starting to see hints of the greatest amounts of ticket splitting we have seen since the 1980s.” Ayres pointed to a poll his firm conducted for Rep. Robert Dold, an Illinois Republican in a swing district; it had Clinton leading by 16 points and Dold ahead by 7 percentage points. “So there’s a 23 point difference in those numbers … which is a dramatic level of ticket splitting,” Ayres says.

Nominating Trump only throws accelerant on what had been a smoldering fire for the Republican Party. Because you know who Donald Trump specifically does not appeal to? Women (the gender gap is trending toward record-setting this year), nonwhite voters and young voters.

“That’s a serious danger,” says GOP pollster Ayres. “People tend stick the participation identification they adopted when they came of political age.” If Democrats can lock in voting groups whose power is only going to grow, like Latinos and millenials, “it will be exceedingly difficult for Republicans to put together a majority in future elections.”

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Whit Ayres, July 7

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal on the electoral impact of the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton’s “extremely careless” handling of classified emails:

Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster, said Mr. Comey’s remarks won’t help Mrs. Clinton convince voters that her competence is beyond reproach. But his comments aren’t likely to be a fatal blow, either, he said.

“In any other election, having the FBI director accuse a presidential candidate of extreme carelessness would effectively kill their campaign, but this is obviously not any other election,” Mr. Ayres said. “It should not be difficult to win that, but Mr. Trump may find it challenging.”

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Whit Ayres, July 6

Whit Ayres’ comments in the McClatchy newspapers regarding the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information:

Republican consultant Whit Ayres noted that Comey’s phrase “extremely careless” to describe Clinton’s handling of classified information is likely to be used repeatedly in TV and radio spots.

“Today may have closed the legal case on the email scandal, but it’s hardly closed the political case,” he said. “The worst criticism any candidate can receive is one that reinforces pre-existing doubts, and this certainly reinforces the pre-existing doubts about Hillary Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness. There is a reason she’s not deemed by most Americans to be honest and trustworthy, and it’s the kind of thing that Comey discussed.”

Still, Ayres was not yet certain that the controversy would end up changing Clinton’s standing in the polls or the eyes of the voters.

“The question is whether this is already built into the price of the stock,” he said. “Are doubts about Hillary Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness already built into the numbers we see in the polls or does this have the potential to move those numbers?”

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Whit Ayres, July 4 Washington Times

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Washington Times regarding ticket splitting:

While presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton tops Mr. Trump in matchups in Florida, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, incumbent Senate Republicans are all ahead in polling in their own races, building significant leads.

“We’re seeing in numerous states and districts at the moment very substantial levels of potential ticket-splitting,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

Mr. Ayres said tickets haven’t been split much in recent elections because down-ballot candidates have tended to align themselves closely with their parties’ presidential nominees. That is not the case this year, and voters are being asked to split their tickets.

“People are perfectly capable of splitting their tickets, and it looks like if the parties follow through with their presumptive nominees, then this year we could have a record level,” Mr. Ayres said.

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Whit Ayres, June 25

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Los Angeles Times regarding comparisons between “Brexit” and the Trump campaign:

“The Brexit vote did not have a candidate,” said Whit Ayres, the Republican pollster who served as a strategist to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign. “The decision about the presidency involves far more than disagreements over public policy. Character and leadership are going to be paramount in this choice for Americans in November.”

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Dan Judy, June 16

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill on Republicans focusing on down ballot races this fall:

“I think in the minds of people right now, that is the focus — preserving our majorities in the Senate and the House,” said Dan Judy, a GOP strategist whose firm North Star Opinion Research worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) presidential bid. “You’re seeing it among people in Washington, you’re seeing it among many of the major-money people.”

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Whit Ayres, June 16

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Dayton Daily News on Trump and the Republican party:

“A year ago there was the potential to have a united party behind a popular candidate posting up against a historically unpopular Hillary Clinton,” says veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who worked for Marco Rubio’s failed presidential bid. “Today we have a divided party with the one candidate in America less popular than Hillary Clinton as our presumptive nominee.”

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Get Used to It

Whit Ayres’ comments for The Washington Post on Donald Trump’s campaign style and Republican reactions:

“Get used to it,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, a Trump critic. “This is your life for the next five months.”

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