Whit Ayres, July 21

Whit Ayres’ book 2016 and Beyond was cited in a Wall Street Journal column by Fred Barnes:

Any harsh criticism of immigrants who have come here illegally gets their attention. “The idea that Republicans can rip into illegal immigrants without antagonizing Hispanic voters is delusional,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres noted in his book “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America.” He has surveyed Hispanic voters extensively.

Mr. Ayres says an intemperate attack on illegal immigrants by a Republican will be exploited by Democrats and amplified by the media, particularly Spanish-language talk show hosts. This is why Republicans were worried about Donald Trump’s denunciation of immigrants from Mexico. Indeed, his attack became a national story.

At my request, Mr. Ayres calculated how Mr. Romney would have done in Florida if he had matched President Bush’s performance in 2004. Republicans probably can’t win the presidency without Florida. It has a large Hispanic population, of which Mr. Bush won 56%. Hispanics were 15% of the Florida electorate.

In 2012 Mr. Romney got 39% of Florida Hispanics, who had grown to 17% of the total vote. Doing as well as Mr. Bush would have given Mr. Romney an additional three percentage points overall, Mr. Ayres suggests, and he would have captured Florida by “the same margin as Bush in 2004.” In other words, Mr. Romney would have won the state 52% to 47%, instead of losing it 49% to 50%.

To read the full column, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 17

Whit Ayres has argued in his book 2016 and Beyond that the next Republican nominee will need to earn more than 40 percent of the Hispanic vote to be competitive, and that point was referenced in articles in the LA Times and Fiscal Times.

For the LA Times article, please click here.

For the Fiscal Times article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 24

Whit Ayres’ comments in USA Today regarding immigration and presidential politics:

Indeed, Republican efforts to appeal to Hispanics, seen as promising targets because they often are culturally conservative, has been undercut by unyielding views toward undocumented workers. “Immigration is not the most important issue to Hispanic voters — jobs and the economy lead by a mile — but it’s a gateway issue that sends a signal to Hispanics,” says Ayres, who published a book this year titled 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, May 13

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Wall Street Journal about immigration reform and changing demographics in the United States:

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and strategist, says merely attacking illegal immigration—which is viewed by many Hispanics as an attack on their entire community—isn’t enough for a candidate, and that the GOP’s immigration-reform complacency could be costly in 2016 and beyond.

“The demographics in our country are changing so rapidly—with whites declining and nonwhites increasing about three percentage points each presidential election—that it becomes exceedingly difficult to win a majority of the popular vote just by increasing the share of the white vote going to the Republican candidate,” Mr. Ayres told Forbes last month. Trying to gain a larger share of a shrinking proportion of the electorate is a losing strategy, he added. “It makes far more sense—in 2016 and certainly for elections after that—for Republicans to focus on dramatically increasing their share of the nonwhite vote, especially among Hispanics who are the fastest-growing minority group.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, April 18

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Economist on the demographic challenges facing Republicans at the presidential level:

The idea that a Republican could win without becoming more appealing to minority voters was disproved in 2012. Mitt Romney ran up a record score with non-Hispanic white voters, yet still lost. Both Mr Romney and John McCain, the party’s nominee in 2008, would have been president if they had faced the same (largely lily-white) electorate as Ronald Reagan did in 1980, says Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. And Hillary Clinton, the probable Democratic nominee, is unlikely to do as badly with white voters as Mr Obama did.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, March 30

Whit Ayres was cited in the New York Times regarding the 2016 presidential contest and the need to appeal to Hispanic voters:

Mr. Bush’s calculus is based in part on the 2012 election: Mitt Romney received 17 percent of the nonwhite vote, meaning that if the next Republican nominee does no better, he or she will have to receive 65 percent of the white vote to win, said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

More significant, their approaches to the primary campaign could also be instructive about how each would attempt to win a general election, and the risks they choose to take.

“One is a populist strategy that doubles down on turning out disaffected white men,” Mr. Lewis said. (An adviser to Mr. Walker did not directly dispute this assessment, suggesting that Mr. Walker would perform well with middle-class voters, whose support for Democratic candidates has dwindled in the last few presidential campaigns and who have strongly supported Mr. Walker in his gubernatorial races.)

“The other is a gamble that conservatism can win in the free market of ideas amongst a diverse and changing 21st-century America,” Mr. Lewis said of Mr. Bush’s approach.

Of course, Republicans may not be strictly bound to an either-or proposition.

Winning back the Great Lakes states could prove as decisive as reclaiming the increasingly diverse states that Mr. Bush is focused on, said Mr. Ayres, the pollster. He said that was an argument for a hybrid candidate who could do both — like Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, whom Mr. Ayres expects to work for if he runs for president.

Republicans may ultimately choose such a third way. But if it comes down to Mr. Bush and Mr. Walker, the choice will prove revealing.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, Forbes Magazine

Whit Ayres was interviewed by Forbes to discuss his new book 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America:

In a new book, 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America, veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres argues that given demographic trends, Republicans need to attract more minority voters or face Democrats winning the White House in 2016 and on into the foreseeable future. Ayres is founder and president of North Star Opinion Researchand has consulted for high level Republican candidates and conservative organizations.

To read the interview, please click here.

Whit Ayres, March 12

Whit Ayres’ recent Wall Street Journal opinion piece, “A Daunting Demographic Challenge for the GOP in 2016,” was quoted in the Dallas Morning News:

At the same time, Hillary Clinton seems likely to benefit from the country’s continuing demographic diversification, which prominent Republican analyst Whit Ayres said recently poses a big barrier toward a GOP victory in 2016.

In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney “won every significant white group…often by overwhelming margins,” only to lose the election by 5 million votes because Barack Obama “achieved breathtaking majorities among every other racial group,” Ayres wrote in The Wall Street Journal.

“Unfortunately, for Republicans,” he added, “the math is only going to get worse,” as the proportion of white voters continues declining. Republicans can’t win “unless they nominate a transformational candidate who can dramatically broaden the GOP’s appeal,” he wrote. Calling Clinton “a more attractive candidate than Obama among whites in culturally conservative regions,” he said the former secretary of state could even win with less of the nonwhite vote than John Kerry polled in 2004.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres at AEI, February 24

Whit Ayres spoke about the Demographic challenges facing Republicans at “States of Change,” an AEI/Brookings/CAP event held on February 24.  Whit’s presentation starts at the 3:10:19 mark (where the video below begins).

Whit Ayres, March 5

Jennifer Rubin interviewed Whit Ayres about his new book, 2016 and Beyond:

Whit Ayres, president of North Star Opinion Research, is among the most respected pollsters in GOP circles. (As a caveat, his firm has two GOP 2016 hopefuls as clients, Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina  and Marco Rubio of Florida.) His new book, “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America,” makes the simple case that a conservative message based on individual liberty, free markets, a strong national defense and support for families is not and cannot be directed only to white voters. “These values know no ethnic boundaries,” he says in a telephone interview. Republicans cannot win at the national level without recognizing the increasingly diverse electorate. “We need to adopt an inclusive message and an inclusive tone,” he says.

To read the full column, please click here.