Whit Ayres, July 4

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post regarding growing the Republican coalition:

“The president’s base is locked in. They love him, they’re going to turn out and they’re going to vote for him,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. “The problem is that the base is not enough to win. You can make a case that protecting Confederate monuments is very popular among at least a portion of his base, but it does nothing to expand the coalition, and that’s the imperative at the moment and will be going forward if the party hopes to govern.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Dan Judy, June 30

Dan Judy’s comments in The Hill regarding the Republican Party, President Trump, and race:

Another Republican strategist, Dan Judy, noted that there were real implications for Trump, and to some extent the broader GOP, with key voting blocs.

Racially charged rhetoric from the president, Judy said, “hurts [the GOP] among key constituencies that it desperately needs: suburban voters — and white suburban women, to be very specific. It also energizes nonwhite voters against the president. So it is potentially a double whammy at the presidential level.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 25

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Atlantic on increasing electoral challenges for Republicans in the once solid South:

Even the Republicans relatively confident that Trump’s grip on rural voters will allow him to hold most, if not all, of these states recognize the implications of a trend that has them losing ground in the communities that are preponderantly driving economic and population growth.

“The trends of 2016, ’17, ’18 are continuing apace, with continuing weakness of the Republican brand in suburban areas that had traditionally voted Republican, coupled with strengthening of the Republican brand in rural areas that had traditionally voted Democrat,” Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who has long specialized in southern suburbs, told me. “The problem, of course, is that the Republicans are trading larger, faster-growing areas for smaller, slower-growing areas, and the math does not work out in the long run with that sort of trade.”

The core political question in the large Sun Belt metro areas may be whether residents are grateful that their governors have given them more freedom to resume daily activities or resentful that they have put them at greater risk by reopening so widely. Ayres said the answer is likely some of both. “I really think there’s a limit to how long you can enforce a rigid lockdown in a country where freedom and liberty are core values,” he told me. “That said, it is now impossible to dismiss this pandemic as a hoax or just the flu or any of the other dismissive appellations that have been applied to it.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Dan Judy, April 6

Dan Judy’s comments to Bloomberg Government regarding telephone surveys during the coronavirus pandemic:

“We are seeing response rates higher than we’ve seen in many years,’’ said Dan Judy, who polls for Republican candidates at North Star Opinion Research in Alexandria, Va. 

The response rate for polls has been in decline for years, as many people have discontinued their land lines to use only mobile phones, which are harder to reach. 

To maximize results, pollsters have developed procedures, such as not calling on Friday nights, when people are usually out at restaurants or social engagements, or avoiding calling people on their mobile phones during the day when they’re at work and distracted.

Now, many of those protocols are unnecessary, Judy said.

“Day-dialing cellphones is potentially something we could do,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, March 6

Whit Ayres’ comments to McClatchy on demographic changes in Texas:

“The mix of voters in Texas is going exactly the way that demographic trends have predicted, and as long as Republicans continue to perform poorly with nonwhite voters, it appears it will continue,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran pollster and analyst for Republican candidates across Florida and the South. “I think we’re still a cycle or two away from Texas flipping – but it does reinforce the imperative of Republicans to do a better job reaching out to nonwhite voters.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, March 2

Whit Ayres’ comments to FOX Nation on Bernie Sanders’ “kryptonite”:

Ayres suggested that the trend may continue for Sanders in the South, even after Super Tuesday. “There are some polls in Florida that show Bloomberg with three times as much support as Sanders,” he said, referencing the March 17th primary in the Sunshine State, two weeks after Super Tuesday.

“So it’s going to be really interesting to see how Bernie Sanders does in the Southern states on Super Tuesday.”

For the full article and video clip, please click here.

Whit Ayres, February 28

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press on the competitiveness of Georgia elections:

Republican presidential candidates have carried Georgia since 1996. Even so, the state’s suburbs, echoing the rest of the nation’s, have turned increasingly blue, which along with growing populations of Hispanics and other minorities have made Democrats more competitive and Republicans nervous.

“It’s no secret that Republicans have been hurting among college-educated women in suburban communities across the nation, and Atlanta is filled with college-educated suburban women voters,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, November 19

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press on voting trends in Georgia:

“Only in the event of a landslide nationally does Donald Trump lose Georgia,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, pointing to Trump’s 5 percentage point win in Georgia in 2016. Arizona, Ayres said, is the likelier Sun Belt state to flip to Democrats, while Texas and Georgia are a tier below, still a few election cycles away from tilting.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, August 13

Whit Ayres’s comments to CNBC regarding the future diversity of the Republican party:

Whit Ayres, founder and president of North Star Opinion Research, says a diverse Republican Party lies ahead, despite its current state. Ayres worked for Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign in 2016.

“We had a rally in the South Carolina primary in Charleston, and Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Trey Gowdy were on the stage,” Ayres said. “They presented a different face to the American electorate. I took a picture of that rally and said, ‘This is the face of a successful Republican Party.’”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, CSIS Podcast

Whit Ayres joined Dan Runde on his CSIS Building the Future podcast to discuss demographic change, the future of the Republican party, and issues for the 2020 election.

You can listen to part one here.

You can listen to part two here.