Whit Ayres, December 7

Whit Ayres’s comments in The Hill regarding the 2020 electoral environment:

“The 2018 Senate map was the most favorable map for Republicans in our lifetime, so by comparison any other map is going to be more competitive,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

But Ayres warned that it’s far too early to predict the political environment leading up to Election Day 2020.

“It’s exceedingly difficult for me to get any sense of what 2020 will be like until we know two things: what’s in the Mueller report and who the Democrats are going to nominate,” Ayres said, referring to special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.

“If they nominate some far-left-wing whack job that is unacceptable to the broad middle of America, then you have a very different dynamic than if they nominate someone who is within shouting distance of the political center,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Slider: 1 Virginia in Six Charts

Whit Ayres, September 4

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding Hillary Clinton’s trustworthiness:

It’s not only a matter of winning the White House. “She should do whatever she can to whittle down the suspicion that she is not honest or trustworthy, as much for governing as for winning the election,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “When two-thirds of the people think she’s dishonest and untrustworthy, that’s a real problem.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 7

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Wall Street Journal on the electoral impact of the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton’s “extremely careless” handling of classified emails:

Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster, said Mr. Comey’s remarks won’t help Mrs. Clinton convince voters that her competence is beyond reproach. But his comments aren’t likely to be a fatal blow, either, he said.

“In any other election, having the FBI director accuse a presidential candidate of extreme carelessness would effectively kill their campaign, but this is obviously not any other election,” Mr. Ayres said. “It should not be difficult to win that, but Mr. Trump may find it challenging.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, April 21

Whit Ayres’ comments in The Washington Post on the challenges Donald J. Trump would face in a general election:

“One thing you learn very quickly in political consulting is the fruitlessness of trying to get a candidate to change who he or she fundamentally is at their core,” said Republican strategist Whit Ayres, who did polling for Rubio’s presidential campaign before he dropped out of the race. “So is the snide, insulting, misogynistic guy we’ve seen really who Donald Trump is? Or is it the disciplined, respectful, unifying Trump we saw for seven minutes after the New York primary?

“None of us can give ourselves a personality transplant,” Ayres added.

To read the full article, please click here.

Slider: aDano

Slider: 2016 and Beyond

Jon McHenry, February 3

Jon McHenry’s comments in the Washington Times regarding President Obama’s plans to increase the use of executive orders:

“I think what it does is fire up Republicans to turn out to make sure they put in a Senate majority that can stop Obama,” said Republican pollster Jon McHenry, vice president of North Star Opinion Research in Alexandria, Va. “You’re going to see Republicans all up in arms that Obama’s going against the Constitution and trying to be a king and a dictator. It helps ramp up Republican turnout that was already probably going to be pretty good.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Resurgent Republic 2012 Post Election Survey

Our post-election survey for Resurgent Republic, conducted November 6-8, shows that the 2012 election marks the year when the inexorable march of demographic change caught up with the Republican Party. While multiple factors led to President Obama’s reelection, none was as important as rapidly increasing demographic change in the American electorate.

For the full analysis, including links to the toplines and presentation, please click here.

Twitter Political Index

North Star Opinion Research is pleased to join with Twitter, the Mellman Group, and Topsy in announcing the Twitter Political Index, or “Twindex.” Using Twitter’s “firehose” of data, Topsy has constructed an algorithm that places mentions of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama into context with the total conversation on Twitter. The Twindex is similar to a percentile score: a score of 39 for one of the candidates would mean that mentions for the candidate on that day were more positive than 39 percent of all tweets that day; a score of 60 would mean the candidate’s mentions were more positive than 60 percent of all tweets that day.

It is important to note that the Twindex isn’t a poll. Twitter’s blog puts it this way:

Just as new technologies like radar and satellite joined the thermometer and barometer to give forecasters a more complete picture of the weather, so too can the Index join traditional methods like surveys and focus groups to tell a fuller story of political forecasts. It lends new insight into the feelings of the electorate, but is not intended to replace traditional polling — rather, it reinforces it.

Two good media summaries of the Twindex can be found on National Journal and Huffington Post.