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Jon McHenry, January 19

January 20, 2024 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to NPR on undeclared voters and the New Hampshire presidential primary:

Still, what makes New Hampshire so harder to predict – and to poll – is that no one knows what its large portion of undeclared voters are going to do, said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research.

“They could be absolutely disgusted with their choices by Tuesday and say it doesn’t matter who they pick,” said McHenry, who grew up in New Hampshire. “Or they could say, ‘I’ve absolutely had it with Donald Trump and I’m going to, you know, to walk through a blizzard in my bare feet to get to the polls and vote that day.’ “

To read the full article or listen to the story, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, New Hampshire Primary, News Clips, Nikki Haley, Presidential Primaries, Trump

Jon McHenry, January 20

January 20, 2024 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to Real Clear Politics on the current state of the DeSantis campaign:

“It’s tough to see a path forward,” admitted Jon McHenry, a vice president at North Star Opinion Research Group, whose firm worked on the governor’s 2018 Florida campaign.

“His path is almost to hope for Nikki Haley to lose badly in New Hampshire and then be the alternative to Donald Trump in South Carolina,” he added before pointing to New Hampshire, “while you’re also taking yourself off the table for the most visible contest.”

…

The current strategy, McHenry said, “tells a lot of donors, we’re just bailing water out of the ship at this point in trying to get the shore.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: DeSantis, Featured, New Hampshire Primary, Presidential Primaries

Whit Ayres, January 14

January 15, 2024 by

Whit Ayres’ comments on the Republican presidential primary in The Washington Post:

But unlike former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, whose frontal attacks on Trump endeared him to many Democrats and the relatively small constituency of anti-Trumpers in the party, Haley knew she couldn’t ask Republicans who had voted for Trump twice to admit they were wrong. “She has managed to walk a fine line,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres told me. “She avoided the Chris Christie message that Trump is unfit for office while at the same time making a case that it’s time to move on.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Nikki Haley, Presidential Primaries, Republicans, Trump

Jon McHenry, January 4

January 4, 2024 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding conservatives and higher education:

However, pollster and political analyst Jon McHenry said conservative leaders are simply fulfilling their responsibility to amplify the voices of the people they represent. He said he believes many of the critiques from the right reflect the concerns of conservative students and alumni “who feel aggrieved that they’re not getting the same opportunity to share their perspective as liberal students.”

“Some of it’s the culture war and looking to restore America to what it was in the ‘80s,” he said. “Some of it is just an actual desire to see people treated equally, where we’re not going to use race as the determining factor in whether someone gets admitted to a school, [or] whether they get a job.”

…

The pressure from conservatives is not new.

McHenry traced the origin of conservative political focus on higher education to Ronald Reagan’s 1966 gubernatorial campaign, when he promised to “clean up the mess at Berkeley,” in reference to ongoing campus protests for civil rights and other social causes at the California university. Reagan pointed to university staff as responsible for what he called “a leadership gap and a morality and decency gap” — language that strongly mirrors many of the conservative critiques of universities since 2020.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Cultural Issues, Education, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Republicans

Jon McHenry, January 3

January 3, 2024 by

Jon McHenry’s comments in The Daily Caller regarding the 2024 U.S. Senate outlook for Republicans:

Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, warned that while Republicans “have a very favorable map,” their “candidates matter.”

“Republicans threw away winnable races in the last few years with candidates who were less appealing in the general election than they were with a populist base,” McHenry told the DCNF.

…

The Cook Political Report recently switched Tester’s seat from “Lean D” to “Toss Up,” joining other Senate races in Ohio and Arizona.

“This is the cycle where they finally beat Jon Tester,” said McHenry. “His repeated votes with Joe Biden will undo him this time around, especially if Biden is the Democratic nominee.”

Tester votes with Biden 91% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight’s estimate.

To read the full article, including assessments of additional races, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Political Climate, Republicans, Senate Races

Whit Ayres, January 2

January 2, 2024 by

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Huffington Post on Governor DeSantis’ campaign:

But unlike most Trump supporters, who have little knowledge of or experience with the judicial system, DeSantis is a trained naval JAG officer who worked in that capacity as a federal prosecutor in Florida. That experience, in theory, should have given him an understanding of what it takes to get a judge to approve a search warrant ? particularly when the target is a former president.

Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster who worked on DeSantis’ 2018 run for governor, said DeSantis could have released a statement pointing out that the allegations underlying the search warrant were serious, that he hoped they were not true, and that Trump was innocent until proven guilty and would have his day in court.

“Something like that would have been more appropriate, I think,” he said.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, DeSantis, Featured, In the News Sidebar, News Clips, Presidential Primaries, Trump

Whit Ayres, December 21

December 23, 2023 by

Whit Ayres’ comments to the BBC on the Republican primary:

Whit Ayres is a Republican pollster who has worked with a number of the party’s candidates. He told the BBC that “survival and momentum” would be key for the anti-Trump candidates in the contest. 

“If Nikki Haley can run a close third, or maybe even beat [Ron] DeSantis for second place, that will give her a substantial boost,” he observed. “Donors want to support a winner. If you can’t get votes, you can’t get money.” 

…

Mr Ayres observed that voters can be split into three categories: People who will never vote for Mr Trump, staunch supporters of his agenda and a third category who are interested in alternatives. 

“About half of the party are ‘maybe Trump’ voters,” he told the BBC. “They are at least interested in who the alternatives are, they’re maybe concerned about the amount of baggage he carries, his focus on the past, his concern with grievances as opposed to policies. So they are open to alternatives.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Jon McHenry, December 17

December 18, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller regarding President Joe Biden’s standing in the polls:

“All of these polls point to voters having already decided against Biden on the current merits,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “They just don’t think he’s up to the job, whether we’re asking about traits like stamina and sharpness or about policies like the economy and immigration.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Presidential Contest

Jon McHenry, December 15

December 15, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller regarding President Biden’s decline in support among traditional Democratic supporters:

“What is really interesting about the polling is not that President Biden is slipping among core Democratic constituencies like younger voters and Black and Hispanic voters,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “The fascinating part is that former President Trump is gaining some of that support. That seems to be attributable to a general sense that voters think they were better off when President Trump was in office.”

…

McHenry pointed to a recent Wall Street Journal survey that found 49% of voters said Trump’s policies helped them compared to only 23% who said the same of Biden’s, which he believes could be attributable for these minority voters leaving the president’s side.

“That’s a stunning rebuke of President Biden’s tenure,” said McHenry.

…

McHenry believes the shift of younger voters away from Biden has “accelerated” since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack, citing a recent poll his firm conducted in the battleground state of Wisconsin that found these individuals don’t approve of the president supporting Israel’s right to defend itself.

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“All these polls point to Democrats nominating someone who they aren’t actually enthusiastic about and may not show up to support in the fall. As so many Democrats talk about Trump being an existential threat to democracy, it’s hard to believe they’re going to just go ahead and nominate someone who looks like a lock to lose to him,” said McHenry.

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, Joe Biden, News Clips, Political Climate, Presidential Contest, Trump

Jon McHenry, December 13

December 13, 2023 by

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding Governor Chris Sununu’s endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley:

Some analysts say Sununu’s endorsement could help his preferred candidate emerge from New Hampshire’s primary on Jan. 23 as the clear Trump alternative.

He could “put a stamp on her as, yes, she’s really the alternative to Trump,” said Jon McHenry, a national GOP pollster who grew up in the state, in an interview last week. “His endorsement won’t put her over the top, but it sort of keeps her in the game.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Filed Under: Blog, Featured, In the News Sidebar, New Hampshire Primary, News Clips, Nikki Haley, Presidential Primaries, Republicans
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