Jon McHenry, February 29

Jon McHenry’s comments in the Daily Caller regarding Senator Bob Casey and the Biden Administration’s liquified natural gas pause:

“I think this pause is actually the worst of both worlds for Senator Casey. It’s very likely to hit Pennsylvania’s working class voters in the pocketbook, not only by leading to job losses in the state but also by driving up energy costs and continuing the inflation that has been one of the top issues since President Biden took office,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst who works for North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “On the other side, he and Senator Fetterman issued a weak statement saying, in effect, ‘If this hurts Pennsylvania, we’ll have to have words with Joe Biden.’ That statement is too weak to demonstrate any independence, but by questioning it at all, Casey may have aggravated some environmentalists who may not turnout to support him in November.”

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Whit Ayres, February 24

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Wall Street Journal about the Republican primary contest:

GOP consultant Whit Ayres says Nikki Haley represents “what remains of the Reagan-Bush portion of the Republican Party,” even if she doesn’t have a chance to win the nomination.

“She is carrying on a perspective and a philosophy of international engagement and leadership, of treating everyone, including your opponents, with a measure of respect,” Ayres said, adding those values still have a constituency in a party upended by Trump.

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Whit Ayres, February 19

Whit Ayres’ comment to The New York Times about voters’ feelings about the likely 2024 election matchup:

“Exhaustion is underlying the entire attitude toward our presidential election,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “When you’ve got two people that are opposed by 70 percent of Americans who want a different choice, it creates frustration, anxiety and discouragement.”

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Whit Ayres, February 11

Whit Ayres’ comments to The Times of London regarding Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s liabilities:

“I guess his staff are too scared,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster and president of North Star Opinion Research. “He can’t get through an interview without creating more problems for himself.”

“Most people can’t quite believe that [Biden] is even thinking about running again, and they certainly don’t like the idea that he’s one of their only two choices to be president of the United States,” said Ayres. “The other one is facing 91 felony counts. It’s like the vast majority of Americans are going, wait a minute, in a country of 330 million people, are these choices the best we can do?”

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Whit Ayres, February 2

Whit Ayres joined Bill Kristol on his podcast Conversations, saying this about the prospects of another Biden-Trump race:

Trump would win in a landslide in the electoral college if the election were held today and the reason is that Joe Biden is the weakest American president since Jimmy Carter, and there’s some similarity between the two men.

To listen to the podcast, please click here.

Jon McHenry, January 25

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding Donald Trump’s performance in the New Hampshire Republican primary:

Trump remains dominant among Republican voters in New Hampshire, but “his performance among independents is a warning sign,” said Jon McHenry, a national GOP pollster who grew up in the state.

“Based on what you saw last night, it seems like he would not be well positioned to win New Hampshire” in the general election, McHenry added.

“Probably the most unifying thing among Republicans is a view that Joe Biden is ruining the country,” said McHenry, the strategist, “so those Republicans certainly vote for Trump.”

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Jon McHenry, January 24

Jon McHenry’s comments to The Daily Caller regarding the New Hampshire exit polls:

“Going forward, Haley will need to do far better among Republicans while also holding serve among independents in the states where they can participate,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “That probably means challenging former President Trump more directly on issues: Ukraine, China, maybe even entitlement reform and job creation.”

“I do think it is worth watching non-white participation in the primaries going forward,” said McHenry. “If participation is more diverse, that may say something about the eventual nominee’s ability to take votes that have traditionally gone to Democrats.”

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Whit Ayres, January 22

Whit Ayres’ comments to the Associated Press regarding former governor Nikki Haley’s campaign:

Haley quickly rose to a leadership post but collided with colleagues over her push for more recorded votes instead of voice votes that spared lawmakers scrutiny. So she soon aimed for the executive branch. She joined a 2010 gubernatorial primary that included the lieutenant governor, attorney general and a sitting congressman. Haley nearly won the nomination outright, with 48.9% of the primary vote. Haley defeated U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett in a runoff 65% to 35%.

Whit Ayres, a national pollster who worked for Barrett, said the campaign previewed Haley’s ability to cast a wide net. “Those margins tell you something about her political skills,” he said.

Ayres said Haley’s approach is pragmatic, like much of her career. About half the party’s voters, Ayres said, voted for Trump twice and would again – but are open to someone else.

“Following Chris Christie’s lead would cap her at the small percentage of ‘Never Trumpers,’” Ayres added, referring to the former New Jersey governor who hammered Trump before dropping out of the race.

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Jon McHenry, January 19

Jon McHenry’s comments to NPR on undeclared voters and the New Hampshire presidential primary:

Still, what makes New Hampshire so harder to predict – and to poll – is that no one knows what its large portion of undeclared voters are going to do, said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research.

“They could be absolutely disgusted with their choices by Tuesday and say it doesn’t matter who they pick,” said McHenry, who grew up in New Hampshire. “Or they could say, ‘I’ve absolutely had it with Donald Trump and I’m going to, you know, to walk through a blizzard in my bare feet to get to the polls and vote that day.’ “

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Jon McHenry, January 20

Jon McHenry’s comments to Real Clear Politics on the current state of the DeSantis campaign:

“It’s tough to see a path forward,” admitted Jon McHenry, a vice president at North Star Opinion Research Group, whose firm worked on the governor’s 2018 Florida campaign.

“His path is almost to hope for Nikki Haley to lose badly in New Hampshire and then be the alternative to Donald Trump in South Carolina,” he added before pointing to New Hampshire, “while you’re also taking yourself off the table for the most visible contest.”

The current strategy, McHenry said, “tells a lot of donors, we’re just bailing water out of the ship at this point in trying to get the shore.”

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