Whit Ayres, January 5

Whit Ayres’ comments in the Wall Street Journal on the mood of the electorate:

Republican Whit Ayres, who advises Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign, says: “The mood of the country reminds me of the last years of the Carter presidency: We are frustrated with apparent American impotence in world affairs, fearful about the economy and unsettled about the future course of the country.”

To read the full article, please click here (subscription required).

Whit Ayres, November 11

Whit Ayres’ comments in Politico on Marco Rubio and the Republican presidential primary contest:

“Marco Rubio is in a unique position to unite the various factions of the Republican coalition,” said Whit Ayres, Rubio’s pollster, who noted focus group data that showed an uptick in support from social conservatives, not just moderate Republicans looking for a candidate who can win the general election.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, October 28

Whit Ayres’ book 2016 and Beyond was featured in Jason Riley’s Wall Street Journal column:

In his book, “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres notes that when Mr. Romney won 59% of non-Hispanic white voters in 2012, it was the “highest percentage of the white vote of any Republican candidate challenging an incumbent president in the history of exit polling, surpassing even Ronald Reagan’s percentage among whites in his 1980 victory over Jimmy Carter.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, September 25

David Brooks cited Whit Ayres’ book 2016 and Beyond in his New York Times column:

It’s not exactly breaking news that this is ruinous to the long-term political prospects of the party. In his book “2016 and Beyond,” the veteran pollster Whit Ayres, now working for Marco Rubio, points out that given the composition of the electorate, if the G.O.P. candidate won the same 59 percent share of the white vote that Mitt Romney won in 2012, he would have to win 30 percent of the nonwhite vote to get a majority. That’s a daunting number, given that, as Dan Balz of The Washington Post points out, Romney only won 17 percent of that vote.

To read the full column, please click here.

To read more about the book, please click here. To buy the book on Amazon, please click here.

Whit Ayres, August 13

Whit Ayres’ comment on outsider candidates and the mood of primary voters in the Washington Post:

“There’s a disquiet, discomfort and angst that so many people are feeling,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who advises Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.). “They’re scared economically, they’re scared about what’s happening with our adversaries, and it makes them really, really uncomfortable with where the country’s going and where the leaders are going.”

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, August 12

Whit Ayres’ comments on RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and the state of the Republican primary campaign:

“There’s no way you can compare 2012 and 2016 and not conclude that Chairman Priebus has made major strides in improving the process,” says Whit Ayres, another longtime GOP pollster who is working for Marco Rubio this cycle.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 21

Whit Ayres’ book 2016 and Beyond was cited in a Wall Street Journal column by Fred Barnes:

Any harsh criticism of immigrants who have come here illegally gets their attention. “The idea that Republicans can rip into illegal immigrants without antagonizing Hispanic voters is delusional,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres noted in his book “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America.” He has surveyed Hispanic voters extensively.

Mr. Ayres says an intemperate attack on illegal immigrants by a Republican will be exploited by Democrats and amplified by the media, particularly Spanish-language talk show hosts. This is why Republicans were worried about Donald Trump’s denunciation of immigrants from Mexico. Indeed, his attack became a national story.

At my request, Mr. Ayres calculated how Mr. Romney would have done in Florida if he had matched President Bush’s performance in 2004. Republicans probably can’t win the presidency without Florida. It has a large Hispanic population, of which Mr. Bush won 56%. Hispanics were 15% of the Florida electorate.

In 2012 Mr. Romney got 39% of Florida Hispanics, who had grown to 17% of the total vote. Doing as well as Mr. Bush would have given Mr. Romney an additional three percentage points overall, Mr. Ayres suggests, and he would have captured Florida by “the same margin as Bush in 2004.” In other words, Mr. Romney would have won the state 52% to 47%, instead of losing it 49% to 50%.

To read the full column, please click here.

Whit Ayres, July 17

Whit Ayres has argued in his book 2016 and Beyond that the next Republican nominee will need to earn more than 40 percent of the Hispanic vote to be competitive, and that point was referenced in articles in the LA Times and Fiscal Times.

For the LA Times article, please click here.

For the Fiscal Times article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 27

Whit Ayres’ comments in The New York Times regarding cultural issues and the presidential election:

“There will always be side issues, but none of that will compete with people’s primary concerns, which are the economy and who is going to be able to keep the country safe,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster advising Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

To read the full article, please click here.

Whit Ayres, June 24

Whit Ayres’ comments in USA Today regarding immigration and presidential politics:

Indeed, Republican efforts to appeal to Hispanics, seen as promising targets because they often are culturally conservative, has been undercut by unyielding views toward undocumented workers. “Immigration is not the most important issue to Hispanic voters — jobs and the economy lead by a mile — but it’s a gateway issue that sends a signal to Hispanics,” says Ayres, who published a book this year titled 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America.

To read the full article, please click here.